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Egypt & Ethiopia End of the Road on the Nile Dam

The Original Title 

No Room for Debate on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? by Lori Pottinger

GERD is being built in Ethiopia near the Sudan border

International Rivers has been caught in the crossfirebetween Ethiopia and Egypt as they struggle over a large dam being built on the Nile River by Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s government turned its sights on International Rivers after we published a leaked report by the international panel of experts charged with reviewing project documents for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Oursummary of their report describes a number of outstanding concerns raised by the non-binding panel, including the inadequacy of the hydrological-impacts study (a key document for understanding how the dam will affect people and ecosystems downstream).

In response, Ethiopia’s “national panel of experts” (which includes two of the 10 members of the Panel) issued a histrionic statement that claims our organization is backed by “Egyptian financiers,” seeks to prevent Ethiopia from developing, and other provocative and groundless charges. Unhelpfully, their statement does not actually address the concerns raised by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE), nor our summary of them. You can read the IPoE reportand come to your own conclusions.

Ethiopia’s wild allegations have been quite popular with a certain category of internet attack dogs, and these folks aren’t likely to be swayed by what we say here. However, we can state unequivocally: International Rivers does not take funding from any government institution, including Egypt. We are not “taking sides” – we are impartial when it comes to critiquing destructive river projects and poor river management around the globe, including inEgypt and Sudan. The Nile is just one of many basins where conflicts are arising from engineering rivers for a narrow purpose with a limited group of beneficiaries, while a much larger group of people is left to suffer the consequences. These conflicts are exacerbated when transboundary rivers are “developed” for hydroelectricity in isolation and in secrecy. Readers can learn more about our cautions regarding the myriad of dams and diversions planned by many riparian nations along the Nile in our 2003 paper Can the Nile States Dam Their Way to Cooperation?, which presciently noted that poorly planned large dams could worsen tensions over the Nile.

We recognize Ethiopia’s interest in updating the Nile Basin Treaty, support economic development that winnows Ethiopia’s poverty rates, and acknowledge that the Ethiopian Government must chart its own course of development. Our experience as an organization with expertise in hydropower and rivers, and as part of a global civil society movement of dam-affected peoples, leads us to conclude that maintaining healthy rivers and the ecosystems and communities they support is key to long-term prosperity. Our experience studying mega-dams in Africa reveals these projects have consistently failed to reduce poverty, and have been a costly and ineffective solution for increasing access for the millions of people on the continent without reliable access to electricity. We believe a greater focus ondecentralized energy solutions will more quickly, cheaply and effectively begin to close the yawning gap of Africa’s energy poverty.

The GERD Panel concluded a year ago that more studies – some of them quite substantial, but also standard practice for a project of this magnitude – must be undertaken to fully assess GERD’s impacts.  Drawing upon this evaluation by an international team of technical experts, International Rivers has called for a halt to the hurried construction so that critical information on the project’s impacts can be assessed and steps to reduce impacts agreed upon by all nations involved in the dispute.

To the government of Ethiopia, we respectfully submit that the greatest threat to the GERD project is not International Rivers’ publicizing the Panel’s report, but rather the escalation of tensions resulting from the dam’s poor planning process. Such a monumental project should be accompanied by an equally monumental effort to gain acceptance from people who will be affected by it, and a commitment to adopt best practices for managing this important shared river. The next step is to begin the robust studies as called for by the Panel of Experts.

At this writing, Egypt and Ethiopia remain at an impasse while construction of the dam proceeds at a rapid pace. This serious conflict – borne of decades of mistrust between the two nations and controversial treaties over the use of Nile waters – is being enflamed by Ethiopia’s rushed and secretive process. This is what threatens the viability and success of this project. We urge the Nile states to find constructive ways to forge national and regional development strategies that ensure the long-term health of this critically important river, and build resilience to climatic uncertainty.

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GERD Panel of Experts Report: Big Questions Remain

 

 

Construction on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD) – Africa’s biggest hydropower dam – began based on piecemeal preliminary studies and design documents, with only a very basic analysis of how the project would affect downstream neighbors, according to the 2013 final report by an international panel of experts established to evaluate the scheme. The megadam is being built on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and has created conflict with Egypt over its downstream impacts; the experts’ study confirms Egypt’s concerns that the project’s impacts could be significant and are not well understood.

The Ethiopian government reported last year that the panel’s report “showed that the Dam offers high benefit for all the three countries and would not cause significant harm on both the lower riparian countries”, while Egypt has repeatedly said the report calls for more analysis of downstream impacts. Because the report was not made public, neither side could be vetted. Egypt has called for mediation if further studies are not allowed; at this writing, Ethiopia had refused, and was continuing with dam construction.

In March 2014, International Rivers received a leaked copy of the report.  The report documents numerous problems with existing analysis and a lack of analysis on a number of critical issues. The panel recommends further investigation into the dam’s hydrological impacts, including on downstream countries’ water supplies and power generation; risks from climate change, and geotechnical issues. The panel recommends “a full transboundary environmental and social impact assessment … conducted jointly by the three countries.”

The 10-member panel included two members from each of the three riparians (Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan), plus four international experts agreed upon by the governments. A geotechnical expert group was added later. The main panel met for about a year, and had four field visits to the dam site. While the panel’s members were granted access to many key project documents (all of which remain confidential at this time), some key reports were not shared with them, including the critical geotechnical assessments for the main and saddle dams, and project cost-benefit analyses.

One international dam expert who has seen the report states that it shows that construction on the project is proceeding on “an aggressively accelerated schedule” with little room for adjusting key elements of dam design to reduce harm or prevent problems. A number of key studies for the project are described by the panel as being outdated or in process. While references are made to some specific international standards being adhered to, overall, the process described seems chaotic and incomplete. It is also clear that there is precious little oversight on Africa’s largest dam project to date. While the international panel has brought a type of oversight, it may be too little, too late – and with too little teeth; it seems the panel does not have a continuing role in ensuring best practices as construction proceeds.

The panel’s report is almost a year old at this writing, yet its members have been mostly silent since their report was completed (as far as we know, none of the panelists have made public statements about the project). The Egyptian and Ethiopian governments continue the war of words, while at the same time construction on the megadam proceeds, and questions raised by the panel remain unanswered.

Going forward, International Rivers recommends construction on the project be halteduntil all necessary studies recommended by the panel are completed, and a process is in place for ensuring public accountability on the project. Given the panel’s findings, Egypt’s call for mediation in the process is reasonable, and donor governments and international bodies should support such a process.

The following summarizes some of the panel’s key findings and recommendations:

 

  • Quality of project documents: The present design criteria are “quite general, and do not include project- and site-specific conditions … The most essential geotechnical, seismological, hydro-geological, hydrological, hydraulic and structural design data should be compiled into a consolidated report and not scattered in numerous design reports.” The project’s main design report is outdated and does not reflect numerous and significant design changes to the project.
  • Safety: “The stability of the main dam and other main structures should be verified under consideration of additional geological and geotechnical findings.”  The panel believes more analysis may be necessary, but without having access to all information on this aspect of the project, cannot be sure. Nonetheless, they do question some assumptions on the project’s “shear strength” and raise concerns about sliding, seepage and other safety issues. “In view of the on-going construction works . . . highest priority shall be given to clarify [dam safety issues] as soon as possible. Structural measures might be needed to stabilize the foundation to achieve the required safety against sliding.” The panel also suggests design modifications for the saddle dam and further studies on the spillway dimensions. The panel recommends that the discharge of the “Probable Maximum Flood” used in the dam design be increased.
  • Downstream changes to water flow: First and foremost, “The (hydrological study) is very basic, and not yet at a level of detail, sophistication and reliability that would befit a development of this magnitude, importance and with such regional impact as GERD.” Project studies looked only at the GERD site. “No upstream developments are taken into account, and no downstream flow records … are given as would be needed to assess downstream impacts.” The panel notes that, “given the proposed upstream cascade development of similar magnitude than the GERD, the upstream flow records could be of significant importance.” The panel notes that the hydrological report uses questionable estimates of evaporation from the reservoir (a key issue in how much water the dam will “use”), and recommends further assessments of evaporation. It also notes that the project did not quantify water losses through deep percolation during reservoir filling. Regarding GERD’s impact on Egypt’s water supply, the panel found that “mass balances represented in the report of water between the GERD and the High Aswan Dam could not be reconciled given the information presented.” The GERD also allows for greater expansion of irrigated cropping in Sudan, which could further reduce flows to Egypt; the panel recommends a detailed study on this issue.
  • Environmental impacts: Surprisingly little information is included on impacts on local people, ecosystems, fisheries or biodiversity. The official Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Report was “strictly limited to the impact zones located upstream of the dam site in Ethiopia.” Downstream environmental impacts were not considered as being significant, and therefore several related socio-economic impacts are not addressed. Dam height was chosen without consideration of downstream environmental and socio-economic impacts. The panel recommends a full transboundary impact assessment be done.
  • Climate risks: The panel notes that the project did not assess the project’s sensitivity to climate change. A project of this scale and with such heavy reliance on rainfall patterns requires a better understanding of future hydrologic conditions to ensure the highest degree of flexibility and resiliency in its design and operation. The panel recommends a study that looks at the potential influence of climate change on the flow regime at GERD and further downstream.
  • Sediment and water quality issues: The project did not include an analysis of sediment deposition in the reservoir (a troublesome issue for dams on the muddy Nile). The panel notes that sediment flows downstream of the dam will be substantially reduced, with implications for floodplain farming productivity, navigation, Sudan’s brick industry, riverbank erosion, and biodiversity. The panel also recommends additional studies on water quality changes from the project, particularly on methane gas production and the depletion of dissolved oxygen levels in water releases that could harm fisheries and biodiversity downstream.
  • Dam operations: Very little information on how the dam will be operated was given. At a basic level, both present and future needs for “peaking power versus base power needs to be assessed in more detail,” and “needs to be taken into account in (project) planning and sizing.” The report requests verification of the 6,000MW installed capacity. Furthermore, the Panel does not indicate if the dam was designed in a way to accommodate “environmental flows” (which can be used to mitigate impacts of a dam on a river). In all likelihood this was not considered as the panel writes that “it is not clear whether the present design considers (capacity, functionality) the minimum mean flows of the dry months release to the downstream countries” without use of power generation facilities or the spillway.  It is also clear that consideration of operation of the GERD in coordination with water systems in Egypt and Sudan was at a very preliminary stage during the writing of this report. The report strongly recommends additional studies of the GERD “in the context of the Eastern Nile System” in order to “quantify the downstream impacts in detail with confidence.”

More information:

Download the full report

Ethiopian Government’s official response to the Panel’s findings

Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Dam Talks Hit Dead End

Read our blog on the controversy generated by leaking this report

Leaked report sparks disagreement between Egypt and Ethiopia over dam

Mohammed Yahia

A Google Earth map showing the location where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be built in the Ethiopian Highlands.

When Ethiopia diverted part of the Blue Nile river at the end of May 2013 to begin construction of what will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, it sparked outrage from the now ousted Egyptian government, which was concerned the dam would reduce its water supply.

The Blue Nile is one of two main tributaries that feed the Nile River, which supplies 97% of Egypt’s population with water. Ethiopia seeks to abolish a 1929 British mediated colonial-era agreement between Egypt and Sudan that gives 90% of the Nile’s water to the two countries and gives Egypt the right to veto the construction of dams in countries upstream.

In May 2012, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt appointed a panel of experts, with each country appointing two experts, alongside with four experts from non-member countries, to evaluate the environmental impact of the dam on the region. The panel submitted its report on 1 June. Though the report is yet to be published, each government has leaked details of the panel’s findings.

While the Ethiopian ministry of water and energy produced a press release saying the report recommends the building of the dam, the Egyptian state information service contends that the scientific evidence cited by their Ethiopian counterparts either lacked sufficient detail or was out of date.

“While Ethiopia has announced that the dam will have many beneficial effects and no negative ones on the two downstream countries, the final report stressed that the studies and designs presented by Ethiopia had several deficiencies in the methodologies used to produce them. Additionally, some of these studies need to be updated in light of the new information that was collected from laboratory and field work,” read the statement released by the presidency’s office in Egypt.

Risk concerns

 

“Dams are constructed today with much more care to livelihoods and environments.”

 

“There were no sufficient geological studies done. The risk is that the dam might create earthquake zones,” says Elnaser Abdelwahab, former regional software developer of the Nile Basin Decision Support System, a component of the Nile Basin Initiative, which is a partnership setup among the Nile riparian states to handle cross-border issues regarding the river.

Abdelwahab says that the construction of the dam will create a man-made lake in the mountains, which will contain around 74 billion tonnes of water. This lake could lead to seismic activity that could collapse the dam and cause a massive outpouring of water. “The Ethiopians also used optimistic data when considering rainfall rather than using a worst case scenario.”

Abdelwahab, who was not a member of the expert panel but worked with an Ethiopian–Egyptian team to set up the Nile countries’ first water management decision support system, claims that the report included no environmental studies. “This is considered to be an extremely negative point. Dams are constructed today with much more care to livelihoods and environments.”

Tilahun Amede, a researcher on natural resource management at the International Crops Research Institute in Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT), says the dam’s design will not be the main factor in the effect it has on the environment and peoples’ livelihoods. “It is also about how the dam is going to be managed and water regulated. It is about protecting the upper watersheds of the dam to increase water yield, reduce siltation and improve overall environmental services.”

When complete, the dam will be one of the world’s tallest at 145 metres and produce 6,000 MW of power, an equivalent of six nuclear power stations. Amede, who was not on the expert panel but has studied water use in Africa for the past four years, says the design and height of the dam means the reservoir will be deep rather than wide to lower evaporation. The cool, humid climate of the Ethiopian highlands should further reduce evaporation, thereby minimizing the amount of water loss from the dam.

All three governments agree that the dam will reduce water flow to downstream countries while the reservoir forms. The reduction in water flow will depend on how fast Ethiopia decides to fill the dam. The original plan aimed to fill the reservoir in three years, but Hailemariam Desalegn, the Ethiopian prime minister, said his government is willing to spend up to six years filling the reservoir to address the concerns of downstream countries.

According to a document released by the Egyptian government, the Ethiopian members of the expert panel failed to present any research on the potential impact on countries downstream in the event of the dam collapsing.

Politics over science

 

“The current rhetoric will do little for the best shared vision of the three countries.”

 

Abdelwahab says he is frustrated that both the Egypt and Ethiopia governments are ignoring scientific evidence and technical information. “[The Nile Basin Decision Support System] contains the necessary computer simulation tools to design and test dam projects before construction. However, the countries did not use it and now they deliver such poor studies with such poor scientific arguments.”

When the panel presented its findings to the three governments behind closed doors, they outlined the need for further research and it was not supposed to be made public until after agreement was reached. However, both Ethiopia and Egypt leaked details, prompting some Egyptian politicians suggesting military intervention could be taken to sabotage the dam’s construction.

Both Abdelwahab and Amede say that the latest political exchanges between the two countries will bring no resolution to the disagreement over building the dam. Instead, they should be collaborating on the science and technical aspects of the dam construction, such as the design to be used and the environmental effects it may have.

“My worry is the current rhetoric will do little for the best shared vision of the three countries,” says Amede. “Given their experience with the Aswan High Dam, the Egyptian government could play a pivotal role in helping Ethiopian engineers ensure that the dam construction and overall management is of high quality and will have no negative effect on Egypt.”

“Unless they consider the dam construction a technical not a political piece of work, I don’t see any resolution to the problem because the politicians will continue to force science out,” adds Abdelwahab.

 

Morsi ousted planing to attack Syria’s Assad and Ethiopian Dam

By Dr. Webster G. Tarpley

The combination of Morsi’s aggressive designs against Syria, together with some trial balloons from presidential circles about a possible conflict with Ethiopia, plus the massive anti-Morsi demonstrations organized by the National Salvation Front and the Tamarod movement, convinced military leaders that the incompetent and erratic Morsi, who had destroyed his own popularity by selling out to the demands of the International Monetary Fund last November, represented an intolerable risk for Egypt.”

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Convincing evidence suggests that Egypt’s President Mohammad Morsi was ousted from power in a military coup in part because the Egyptian army feared he was plotting to order them to invade Syria in support of the embattled death squad insurgency against the Assad government there.

The combination of Morsi’s aggressive designs against Syria, together with some trial balloons from presidential circles about a possible conflict with Ethiopia, plus the massive anti-Morsi demonstrations organized by the National Salvation Front and the Tamarod movement, convinced military leaders that the incompetent and erratic Morsi, who had destroyed his own popularity by selling out to the demands of the International Monetary Fund last November, represented an intolerable risk for Egypt.

According to the Washington Post, the dissatisfaction of the Egyptian military with Morsi “peaked in June, when Morsi stood by twice as officials around him called for Egyptian aggression against Ethiopia and Syria, threatening to suck Egypt into conflicts that it could ill afford, former military officials said.”

Morsi’s call for Holy War against Assad came just three days after US Secretary of State John Kerry, at a meeting of the Principals’ Committee of the US Government, tried to ram through an immediate bombing campaign against Damascus, but had to settle for the option of arming the Syrian terrorist opposition, leading many observers to conclude that the Egyptian president was acting as part of a US anti-Syrian strategy.

June 15: Morsi Breaks Diplomatic Relations with Damascus

The beginning of the end for Egypt’s first elected president came in mid-June, when he attended a militant Islamist conference “in support of the Syrian uprising” at a 20,000-seat indoor stadium in Cairo. As the packed hall chanted and applauded deliriously, Morsi announced: “We have decided to close down the Syrian Embassy in Cairo. The Egyptian envoy in Damascus will also be withdrawn. The people of Egypt and its army will not leave Syrians until their rights are granted and the new elected leadership is chosen.”

By thus breaking off diplomatic relations with another Arab state, Morsi was joining the dubious company of the NATO-backed puppet regimes in Libya and Tunisia, the only Arabs so far to have called home their envoys from Damascus. And for Cairo, such a move has far greater significance, given that Egypt and Syria were politically united between 1958 and 1961 in a single nation as the United Arab Republic, one of the fruits of President Nasser’s Pan-Arab Socialism.

Using the now familiar Moslem Brotherhood doubletalk, Morsi urged NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Syria – a measure which would entail a bombing campaign of many weeks, with inevitable heavy losses for the Syrian population. But Morsi them shifted his ground to condemn foreign interference in the Syrian conflict, declaiming that “Hezbollah must leave Syria; there is no place for Hezbollah in Syria.” Morsi was accompanied to the anti-Syria rally by his top political affairs and foreign policy advisers, one of them a leading Salafist.

In a crescendo of doubletalk, Morsi intoned: “The Egyptian people have stood by the Lebanese people and Hezbollah against the [Israeli] attack in 2006, and today we stand against Hezbollah for Syria.” According to the Jerusalem Post, he also asserted that Syria was the target of “a campaign of extermination and planned ethnic cleansing fed by regional and international states,” which the Israelis claimed was a veiled reference to Hezbollah and Iran.

Responding to the Cairo anti-Syrian rally, a Syrian government official told the news agency SANA that Morsi had joined the “conspiracy of incitement led by the United States and Israel against Syria by announcing the cutting of ties yesterday…. Syria is confident that this decision does not represent the will of the Egyptian people.” This official branded Morsi’s severing of diplomatic relations as “irresponsible… the Syrian Arab Republic condemns this irresponsible position.”

Sunni Extremists Declare Jihad against Syria, Morsi Silent

The Cairo crowd had been warmed up for Morsi by extremist Sunni preachers like Mohammed Hassan and Mohammed Abdel-Maqsoud (leader of the Islamic Legitimate Body of Rights and Reformation), who both ranted about the “necessity of declaring Jihad in Syria, in which Syrians and any capable Moslems shall take part.” There were also calls to Morsi to keep Shiites out of Egypt, on the basis that they are “unclean.” About 1% of Egypt’s population are Shiites, and about 10% are Coptic Christians.

According to the Irish Times, “at the June 15th rally, Sunni Muslim clerics used the word ‘infidels’ to denounce both the Shias fighting to protect Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and the non-Islamists that oppose Mr. Morsi at home. Mr. Morsi himself called for foreign intervention in Syria against Mr. Assad…”

On June 13, Morsi had attended a gathering of sectarians from across the Middle East labeling itself “The Position of the Nation’s Scholars on the Developments in Syria.” Here he had rubbed elbows with the fiery preacher Qaradawi, who regularly incites violence against Syria before an audience of some 60 million viewers worldwide on his program entitled “Shariah and Life,” broadcast on the Al Jazeera Arabic service from Qatar. One June 13 there was already much talk of jihad against Syria, which was obliquely endorsed by Morsi’s Presidential Coordinator for Foreign Affairs Khaled al-Qazzaz, who noted that the Egyptian government would not undertake any measures against Egyptian citizens who go to fight in Syria, since the right to travel is always open. It was practically a call for volunteers.

Egyptian Generals Warn Morsi: Army’s Task Is Defending Borders

Egyptian military leaders were deeply concerned about the inevitable radicalization of Islamist militants who might return from waging war against the Assad government in Syria. But they were most immediately alarmed by the idea that Morsi might try to deploy the considerable forces of the Egyptian army against Syria. They quickly distanced themselves from the reckless plan for aggression which the president had been toying with at the June 15 mass rally. As the Irish Timesreported, Morsi’s bellicose bluster lead to “a veiled rebuke from the army, which issued an apparently bland but sharp-edged statement the next day stressing that its only role was guarding Egypt’s borders.”

According to one anonymous military source reflecting the views of the Army staff quoted by the Irish Times, “the armed forces were very alarmed by the Syrian conferences at a time the state was going through a major political crisis.” Yasser El-Shimy, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, stressed that from the point of view of the Army, Morsi’s performance at the Syria rally had crossed “a national security red line” by prodding Egyptians to fight abroad, thus threatening to create a new generation of violent jihadists.

Morsi’s anti-Syrian turn was also a deeply unpopular among the top bureaucrats of the Egyptian government, many of whom had advised him not to go down this path, reported Al Ahram Online on June 16. According to this paper, some powerful bureaucrats saw the potential damage as “irreversible,” and viewed the breaking of diplomatic relations as “a decision made by the President against the advice of top bureaucratic aides….” This account also stressed that, by praising the mediation efforts of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but by pointedly excluding Iran, Morsi was jettisoning the four power contact group he himself had proposed for a Syrian settlement at the nonaligned conference in Tehran last August. “This would simply mean that Egypt has decided that its relations with Tehran would have to be sacrificed in favor of winning the support of Washington, and maybe even Riyadh,” said one source quoted by Al Ahram.

Egypt’s Generals Fear “Devastating Sunni-Shiite War”

These developments were considered extremely ominous by top Egyptian civil servants. As Al Ahram wrote, “Egypt, according to concerned quarters in Egyptian bureaucracy, is now being driven to take part in a ‘devastating Sunni-Shiite war’ that could wreck the entire region. The concern is not just about Syria, but about the entire Arab Mashraq, including Lebanon and Iraq particularly. Al Ahram pointed to a possible additional venal motive for Morsi and his controllers in the Muslim Brotherhood: “Egypt has been trying to break the ice with Saudi Arabia for a few weeks now in the hope of soliciting desperately needed financial aid. Saudi Arabia has been adopting a strictly sectarian approach towards developments in Syria since the beginning of the uprising there, and all the more so since the entrance of Hezbollah into the war in Syria on the side of the Assad regime.”

In a country like present-day Egypt, a coup d’état should not be undertaken lightly. But one consideration which might justify such coup is the urgent need to prevent an erratic and incompetent ruler like Morsi from embroiling the country in a ruinous foreign war. To be able to respond to Morsi’s war talk in such a timely and decisive way, the Egyptian army must contain officers of exceptional intelligence and determination, gifted with that quality which Machiavelli called virtu and von Clausewitz called Entschloßenheit. (Since the firing of General Douglas MacArthur in 1951, this quality has been largely extinct from the US officer corps.) We may thus be justified in hoping that the great tradition of President Nasser is alive among Egyptian military and government leaders.

Leftists See Morsi as Cat’s Paw For US Against Syria

The leftist April 6 Movement (aka Democratic Front) suggested that Morsi was acting as a tool of the US campaign against Syria, saying in a statement that “The decision to open the doors of jihad is coming from Washington sponsored by … Salafist Sheikhs.” The anti-Morsi umbrella organization Tamarod added that “Morsi’s speech reveals that the Syria file has been handed over from Qatar to Saudi Arabia and Egypt and that Morsi is answering America’s instructions.”

The fateful rally attended by Morsi was backed by the Asala Party, a Salafist group, by a number of prominent Salafist preachers, by the Islamic Legitimate Body of Right and Reformation, and by the Guidance Bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood, meaning Morsi’s own controllers. Another sponsor was the Gama Islamiya movement.

As Morsi encountered more and more hostility from centrists and leftists, he attempted during the last phase to gain backing from Salafist and other doctrinaire and holier-than-thou forces to his right. This included the appointment of the “retired terrorist” al Khayat of Gama Islamiya as the governor of Luxor province, the site of the Valley of the Kings, the Temple of Karnak, and one of the greatest international tourist destinations. In 1997, a terrorist action had resulted in the deaths of almost seventy foreign tourists, who were killed deliberately as part of a campaign designed to discourage foreign infidels from coming into Egypt. Khayat was a member of the political arm of Gama Islamiya, and his appointment was hardly designed to encourage tourism.

Post-Qusayr Climate of Imperialist Desperation

Since the fall of the Syrian rebel stronghold of Qusayr on June 5, aggressive circles including Cameron and Hague of the British Tory regime, the Vichy socialists Hollande and Fabius, the Israelis, the US neocon faction, and Secretary Kerry have been pressing for immediate military action against Syria to save the international terrorist forces from as far away as Chechnya and Afghanistan who now face looming defeat. These efforts have included an attempted cold coup or palace coup by Kerry in the June 12 meeting of the White House Principals’ Committee, when his demand to start bombing Syria was blocked by a combination of military figures and Obama loyalists, including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey. For the aggressors, the essential problem is the refusal thus far by Obama to launch a large-scale bombing campaign with several hundred aircraft, followed in all likelihood of by an invasion requiring several armored and infantry divisions – resources which the United States simply cannot afford.

The aggressive forces have attempted to accuse the Syrian government of using chemical weapons. They have also supported the limited hangout around purported NSA leaker Edward Snowden, whose short-term effect has been to weaken Obama’s support from his own liberal base, as well as to undercut his ties to NATO Europe, making the White House more susceptible to Anglo-French pressure for war. Attempts have been made to goad Turkey into an attack on Syria, but the embattled Erdogan regime is now determined not to get out in front on this project.

With the failure of the anti-Syrian Egyptian gambit, London, Paris, Tel Aviv, the neocons, and Foggy Bottom must now be on the verge of total hysteria. These are the circumstances in which recourse to a new Gulf of Tonkin incident or a new false flag terror attack to be blamed on Syria, Hezbollah, and their allies becomes a clear and present danger.

Morsi Cronies Discuss Striking Ethiopia

Egyptian military is not anxious to undertake armed interventions abroad. One exception was Egypt’s participation in Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm. But since then, Egypt has declined US requests to send troops to fight in Afghanistan in 2001, and any Iraqi been 2003.

In the spring of this year, tensions rose between Egypt and Ethiopia when the government in Addis Ababa announced its intention to build a dam on the Blue Nile, prompting concerns by some in Egypt about future water supplies downstream. On June 2, with Morsi in attendance, Islamist politicians recklessly discussed how to sabotage the dam by funding Ethiopian rebel groups, followed by an attack by the Egyptian air force. Unknown to the participants, this incendiary discussion was broadcast on live television. Many were long to see that Morsi did not repudiate these proposals for naked aggression, but instead later commented that “all options are open.”

Egypt – A victory for revolution, not for democracy

If the Brotherhood consents to Morsi’s ouster, it could yet regain the presidency; if not, Egypt is heading into a cycle of violence with regional implications

Lt. Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, center, flanked by military and civilian leaders in including reform leader Mohamed ElBaradei, far left, Tamarod leader Mahmoud Badr, second left and Pope Tawadros II, second from right, as he addresses the nation on Egyptian State Television Wednesday, July 3 (photo credit: AP/Egyptian State Television)

Lt. Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, center, flanked by military and civilian leaders in including reform leader Mohamed ElBaradei, far left, Tamarod leader Mahmoud Badr, second left and Pope Tawadros II, second from right, as he addresses the nation on Egyptian State Television Wednesday, July 3 (photo credit: AP/Egyptian State Television)

The statement issued Wednesday evening by Egypt’s Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi confirmed the expectations of the last few days: the army, backed by the masses, had carried out a coup.

Yes, tens of millions had taken to the streets in recent days, illustrating just how badly the majority of the population wanted to see president Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood out of office. But Morsi was installed just a year ago, having been democratically elected. And he was overthrown by the military.

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Several major figures in Egypt’s political system sat next to al-Sisi when he delivered his statement — among them former International Atomic Energy Agency head (and would-be president) Mohamed ElBaradei, Coptic Pope Tawadros II, and Al-Azhar University President Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb.

But to the left of al-Sisi, slightly behind him, sat a young, bespectacled, long-haired man to whom the defense minister owes the takeover. This man, Mahmoud al-Aziz, was the representative of Tamarod (the revolution) a group that began operating only two months ago. Tamarod succeeded where opposition politicians had long failed and led protests unprecedented in size that eventually resulted in Morsi’s ouster.

For al-Sisi, it was the speech of a lifetime. He started off by explaining that the military’s High Command had tried several times, to no avail, to reason with the presidency to accept the “people’s” terms. And therefore, he explained, it had been decided to present the “road map” to get Egypt out of its crisis.

For Hamas, the news out of Cairo Wednesday night was especially grim. They’re losing their most substantial ally

The Egyptian general, who has yet to turn 60 and was appointed by Morsi to the job just 11 months ago, has been transformed into Egypt’s strongman. He is the one who appointed Supreme Constitutional Court chairman Adli Mansour as interim president. And he is also the one who will dictate the spirit of the new constitution and set the date for new elections. Mansour is expected to be sworn in and take on presidential authorities, alongside al-Sisi and the army, on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the army has isolated Morsi and banned senior Muslim Brotherhood officials from leaving the country. Wednesday evening also saw the closure of some of the television networks associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. It appears that al-Sisi, like a good military man, does not dally but, rather, charges with full force in order to eliminate the enemy.

Yet the enemy, as far as al-Sisi and much of Egypt are concerned, is impossible to eliminate. At best it can be temporarily reduced in scale. In order to ensure the defense minister’s move is a success, he needs the cooperation of the Muslim Brotherhood, or at least some of the Islamists. For now the ball is in “al-Ahwan’s” (the Brotherhood’s) court. If it consents to Morsi’s ouster, it may even win the next presidential elections with a more effective candidate. If it refuses and orders its followers to battle the new regime, Egypt may spiral into a bloody cycle of violence.

Morsi, minutes before he was removed by the army to a secure place, was able to smuggle out his reaction speech, in which he made clear that he refused to accept the military’s takeover. “I will not accept this attempt to take us backwards,” he said. Morsi called on the army to resume its traditional role of protecting the people. “I am the elected president of Egypt,” the Islamist politician said. “It is now demanded of the people to defend this legitimacy and … for legitimacy to be constitutional,” he added, saying that he was willing to call for new elections, but only for the parliament.

It was too little, too late. Five people were quickly reported killed Wednesday evening in clashes between supporters and opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they are not likely to be the last casualties.

Morsi’s ouster and the success of the secular protest in its clash with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt may presage the fall from power of other Islamist movements in the region, like Tunisia and Gaza.

In Tunisia, a protest against the Islamist constitution has already gotten underway.

But for Hamas, the news out of Cairo Wednesday night was especially grim. The Palestinian organization is losing its most substantial ally, one that gave it vital political support. The Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’s parent organization and in many ways its “Godfather,” lost its power to a military establishment that is hostile to the Palestinian group’s goals.

Hamas, which has clashed with Syria and Iran over the course of the last year, now finds itself nearly isolated in the Arab sphere. Perhaps the new reality in which it finds itself will lead the weakened Hamas to conclude its reunification with Fatah.

Time will tell. As of Wednesday night, all eyes were focused on Egypt, where the short-lived presidency of Mohammed Morsi underlined, in case anyone was still in doubt, that the holding of one round of free elections does not constitute a transition to democracy.

 

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Morsi out thrown The Justice minister leading the transition

 

Egypt’s military deposed the country’s first democratically elected president Wednesday night, installing the head of the country’s highest court as an interim leader, the country’s top general announced.

Gen. Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi said the military was fulfilling its “historic responsibility” to protect the country by ousting Mohamed Morsy, the Western-educated Islamist leader elected a year ago. Morsy failed to meet demands to share power with opponents who thronged the streets of Cairo, and those crowds erupted as the announcement was made.

Ahead of the statement, troops moved into key positions around the capital and surrounded a demonstration by Morsy’s supporters in a Cairo suburb. Citing an unnamed presidential source, the state-run newspaper Al-Ahram reported that “the General Command of the Armed Forces told President Morsy around 7 p.m. (1 p.m. ET) that he is no longer a president for the republic.”

At the final hour, Morsy offered to form an interim coalition government “that would manage the upcoming parliamentary electoral process, and the formation of an independent committee for constitutional amendments to submit to the upcoming parliament,” he said in a posting on his Facebook page. He noted that hundreds of thousands of supporters and protesters had packed plazas around the country, and he urged that his countrymen be allowed to express their opinions through the ballot box.

Egyptian demonstrations from aboveEgyptian demonstrations from above

Video shows clashes at Cairo University

Morsy defies military’s ultimatum

Photos, videos capture Egypt in crisis

“One of the mistakes I cannot accept — as the president of all Egyptians — is to side with one party over another, or to present the scene from one side only. To be fair, we need to listen to the voice of people in all squares,” the statement read.

But as night fell Wednesday, troops surrounded a pro-Morsy demonstration at a Cairo mosque and took control of a key bridge across the Nile River. Gehad El-Haddad, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, reported via Twitter that tanks were on the streets.

Morsy was said to be working from a complex belonging to the country’s Republican Guard, across the street from the presidential palace, according to Egyptian state media. Reuters reported that troops were setting up barricades around that facility.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the U.S. government — Egypt’s leading ally — could not confirm reports of a coup. Psaki said the United States is not taking sides and urged all parties to come to a peaceful resolution to the “tense and fast-moving” situation.

Coup allegation

An aide, Essam El Haddad, said in a Facebook posting that a coup was under way and warned that the generals risked bloodshed by moving against Morsy.

“Today, only one thing matters. In this day and age, no military coup can succeed in the face of sizable popular force without considerable bloodshed,” wrote El Haddad, who works in the office of the assistant to the president on foreign relations. “Who among you is ready to shoulder that blame?”

“In a democracy, there are simple consequences for the situation we see in Egypt: The president loses the next election or his party gets penalized in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Anything else is mob rule,” he added.

But Naguib Abadeer, a member of the opposition Free Egyptians Party, said what was under way “is not by any means a military coup. This is a revolution.”

“The people have decided that Mr. Morsy was no longer the legitimate leader of Egypt,” he told CNN.

Abadeer said Morsy lost his legitimacy in November, when he declared courts could not review his decrees and ousted the country’s prosecutor-general. He said Morsy’s supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood — the Islamist movement that propelled Morsy to the presidency — “hijacked the vote of the people” by running on a religious platform, “so these were not democratic elections.”

On Tuesday night, Morsy had vowed that he would not comply with the military’s 48-hour ultimatum and demanded that the armed forces stand down.

“If the price of upholding this legitimacy is my own blood, I am, therefore, ready to sacrifice my blood for this country and its stability,” he said.

But political analyst Hisham Kassem said the speech was Morsy’s “final bluff.”

“He was trying to give the impression ‘We are there in numbers, and we are going to retaliate, we are not going to allow this to happen.’ However, with almost 24 hours since his message, it’s clear his supporters will not dare challenge the crowds on the street,” Kassem said.

All eyes on Egyptian military’s deadline

Egyptian ministers resign amid unrest

He added, “I think President Morsy effectively is no longer running the country.” And faced with the throngs that filled Cairo’s Tahrir Square, “the military had to intervene. Otherwise this crowd was going to get Morsy from his palace.”

Egypt’s anti-Morsy protestors — in their own words

Reports of a TV studio takeover

Reuters and several other news organizations reported that Egyptian troops had “secured the central Cairo studios of state television” as the deadline approached and that staff not working on live shows had departed.

CNN has not confirmed the reports; state television denied in an on-air banner that there was any additional military presence at its studios.

Massive demonstrations for and against the former Muslim Brotherhood leader who was elected to office a year ago have been largely peaceful.

But 23 people died, health officials said, and hundreds more were injured in clashes overnight at Cairo University, the state-funded Al-Ahram news agency reported.

Protest leaders have called for nonviolence.

Opinion: Give Morsy a chance to fix this

Egypt’s military met Wednesday with religious, national, political and youth leaders to address the crisis, Egyptian military spokesman Ahmed Ali said through his Facebook page.

Egypt protesters’ message to Morsy: Go

Hours earlier, an opposition spokesman accused the United States of propping up Morsy out of concern for neighboring Israel.

“The hour of victory is coming,” said Mahmoud Badr of the Tamarod opposition group. He predicted that the “illegitimate president” would be gone by the end of the day.

“Not America, not Morsy, not anyone can impose their will on the Egyptian people,” Badr said.

Opinion: Egyptians are fed up with Morsy

Switching sides

With the ultimatum, the armed forces appeared to have thrown their weight behind those opposed to Morsy’s Islamic government.

Early Wednesday, soldiers and police set up a perimeter around the opposition’s central meeting point, Cairo’s Tahrir Square, “to secure it from any possible attack,” the state-run EgyNews agency reported.

It was the police who, on the same spot in 2011, killed hundreds when they fired upon democratic, moderate and Islamic demonstrators seeking to overthrow Hosni Mubarak, the country’s longtime autocratic leader and U.S. ally.

Mubarak had repressed the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic political movement that emerged as the nation’s most powerful political force once Mubarak was ousted.

At a pro-democracy protest in Cairo, demonstrators expressed anger and fear over what the coming hours could bring.

The Muslim Brotherhood spokesman, Gehad El-Haddad, told CNN that tanks and armored vehicles — accompanied by thugs carrying knives, pistols and ammunition — had been moved to the northern and southern entrances of the square in an apparent attempt to drive them out.

The military fired warning shots into the air, and shot one Muslim Brotherhood member in the leg, El-Haddad said, but the remaining protesters were standing in defiance in front of the tanks.

Some of the protesters oppose Morsy but also oppose pushing from power a democratically elected leader, he said. “Under no circumstances will we ever accept a military-backed coup,” he said.

But many of the democratic reformers and moderates who accused Morsy’s government of moving in an authoritarian direction now support former Mubarak allies and others fed up with the nation’s direction in calling for the restoration of order through the military.

They have been pushing to oust Morsy and his Muslim conservative government, whose leaders were drawn primarily from the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood. They say they have collected more than 20 million signatures on a petition to remove him — millions more than the number who voted Morsy into the presidency.

In recent days, anti-Morsy demonstrators have ransacked Muslim Brotherhood offices all over the country.

Protesters: We’re not going; he must go

Morsy’s close adviser speaks to Amanpour

Interactive map: Explore the locations of protests in Cairo, Egypt. Photos: AFP/Getty Images

Governments issue warnings against travel to Egypt

The military’s plans

Military leaders have told Arab media that they were planning to suspend the constitution, dissolve the parliament and sideline Morsy.

In his place, they would install a mainly civilian interim council until a new constitution can be drafted and a new president elected.

The military’s ultimatum was intended to push all factions toward a national consensus, not to seize power through a coup, a spokesman, Col. Ahmed Ali, said Monday in a

 

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Nile Dam of Ethiopia Could Destroy Egypt’s Way of Life

    • MARK BYRNESEthiopia is currently building Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant. When it opens next year, the “Great Renaissance Dam” will tap into the Nile River. Unsurprisingly, Egypt, a country whose identity and way of life are tied to that body of water, feels threatened by its neighbor’s ambitions.

The new dam will help provide electricity to a country where more than 80 percent live without it. But in Egypt, most of its population is centered near the Nile valley and delta. The former chairman of the National Water Research Center tells Time that the dam will reduce water flow anywhere from 1,300 billion gallons to 6,600 billion gallons per year. It will also increase river pollution, harming fisheries and making it difficult for boats to navigate the river. As Egypt’s foreign minister Mohamed Kamel Amr said recently, “no Nile, no Egypt.”

Tensions between the two nations over the dam project have been palpable. Egypt president, Mohammed Morsi said in a speech on June 10, “we will defend each drop of the Nile with our blood.” During a televised cabinet meeting the week before, several members told the president that “he must destroy the dam through any means available.” Ethiopian prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn however said recently that “nothing and no one” will stop construction of the dam.

Politics aside, the Nile does play a defining role in everyday life for Egyptians, whether they be farmers or floating restaurant owners. Below, via Reuters photographer Asmaa Waguih, we get a glimpse of the wide ranging ways Egyptians use their treasured river:


A small cruise boat passes Nile City Towers, which is owned by Naguib Sawiris the owner of Orascom Telecom, overlooking the river Nile in Cairo June 7, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A boat passes buildings under construction and the two towers of the Bank of Egypt building (R), overlooking the river Nile in Cairo June 7, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A woman rows, while another holds a net as they fish in the river Nile in Cairo April 16, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


Boats sail past the burned out headquarters of former President Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party, on the banks of the Nile in Cairo June 12, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


Women wash clothes in the river Nile in Cairo May 20, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A boy jumps into the river Nile as people celebrate the spring holiday of Sham el-Nessim on the outskirts of Cairo May 6, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A boy washes his horse in the river Nile in Cairo May 22, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


Men help a priest disembark from a river taxi on the river Nile April 5, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A fisherman rows his boat on the river Nile in Cairo April 13, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A farmer stands near his cow while it drinks from the river Nile in Cairo May 22, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


Boys play on a ferry jetty on the shore of the river Nile in Cairo May 22, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


People sit on chairs set out by a cafe on the banks of the river Nile in Cairo April 21, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


People sit in a cafe overlooking the barrages of al-Qanatir on the river Nile in Cairo May 6, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


A woman looks out as she sits in a boat during a cruise on the river Nile in Cairo June 7, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)


Boats housing restaurants and nightclubs float on the river Nile in Cairo May 8, 2013. (REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih)

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Drums of War over the Nile – “Mater of life & Death” “Israel & US Behind It “


Ethiopia has angered Egypt with its plans to construct a massive hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, a key Nile River tributary. Ethiopia just divert to start filling the reservoir that may take over 5 years to fill up, mean while the flow of the Nile will be disrupt from Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia contributes 87 % of the Nile water.

During Monday’s meeting, an Islamist party leader suggested Egypt support Ethiopian rebels to exert pressure on Addis Ababa. A liberal politician suggested spreading rumors that Egypt was buying military planes for possible airstrikes.

The Ethiopian foreign office summoned the Egyptian Ambassador to Ethiopia to clarify the position  of his country.

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Eritrea is negotiating with Egypt on the Nile – Breaking News ሰበር ዜና!!!

Eritrea after controlling the Red cost and land locking Ethiopia, now is planning to control the Blue Nile Basin with the help of Egypt.

The Eritrean Government is acting as a plate form for Egypt’s historical plan to dominate the Nile, and be able to irrigate her arid southern farms in a dream of becoming a bread basket of Middle East.

Eritrea is known for its training and preparing proxy warriors in the Horn of Africa since here independence in 1993. Even the UN sanction did not intimidate the Red sea state. The living demonstration is Alshabab of Somalia. Isasias Afwerki is said to propose the preparation G7 for the proxy war with Addis Ababa for the control of the source of  Blue Nile for Cairo.

In the recent meeting between the two regimes, Eritrea said to participate to realizing Egypt’s century old ancestral dream of controlling the Blue Nile River.

The plan was once crafted with the out sated   Dictator Mubarak in his time in power inherited from Jamal Abdel Nasser. The Eritrean Junta to create a new Nile basin state in the horn of Africa as a main base for food for Eritrea under the hegemony of Egypt. This is to assure once for all the source of the Blue Nile to be under the pharaoh’s state control.

As we all know the Eritrean struggle was started and supported in 1960’s   by the Nasser’s   Egypt. This was done due to the the refusal of the Negus Haile Selassie   to the Proposal of Egypt to create a Federation with Ethiopia and Sudan. A master plane  to control the source and the flow of the Blue Nile discharging  over  87% of the sweet life giving Water to Egypt and Sudan.

In the recent meeting, Eritrea proposed Egypt to use G7 (Genbot 7 Ethiopian Opposition in Eritrea) as a proxy agent to overthrow the regime in Addis Ababa and balkanize Ethiopia.  The representative of G7 Mr. Andargachew Tsege was also present at the meeting according to our source in Eritrea. The  meeting was held in the Egyptian Resort of the Red Sea. In consequence, in its recent news release the Isasias regime declared his support to Egypt to keep the Lion   Share of the Nile   according to 1929 and 1959 colonial pact,

Egypt has no other source of life giving water and the recent building of the Ethiopian new   Renaissance   mega dam of 145 Meter tall and 1KM 800M long with a reservoir of 63,000,000,000 m3 is expected to stop the follow the Blue Nile at list for 5 years. The mega dam has irritated the relation between Egypt and Ethiopia recently. The new Egyptian revolutionary     regime wanted to assure by all means the survival of its over 80 million inhabitant.

As history is a living lesson, in 1900’s Egypt had made two unsuccessful wars with Ethiopia in Eritrea with the help of European and US confederated mercenary fighters to have full hegemony over the source the Blue Nile.

According to our sources form   Eritrean January 21st mutineers, G7   have already getting the necessary instruction by the Nile state through Eritrea for destabilizing the regime in Addis Ababa.

The new Revolutionary regime in Egypt is said to playing carrot and stake in its new geostrategic plan for Africa. In one hand Dr. Mursi calling rapprochement with Nile basin countries, on the other he is working to destabilizing them to slow down the damming of the river Nile.

The Eritrean B. G. Teleke Keflay alias Menjus is seen escorting Egyptian security forces close to Sawa in the Northern part of Eritrea. They were seen arriving   on northern Eritrean Red Sea cost.

The Eritrean regime strategy is following the foot step of Egypt proposing peace with Ethiopia one hand and preparing war on the the other. Thus the long neglected Eritrea would revive financially and Geo strategically in the region.

Sources   EPPF from Asmara

Source

Info@eppf.net

 

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ElBaradei Mohamed A Visionner for Post Modern Pan Arabic Egypt

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“The president is a military man. The Vice President is a military man. The Prime Minister is a military man and I think if you really want to build confidence, you need to engage the rest of the Egyptian people, the civilians and that’s why I suggested that we should have a transitional period where a presidential counsel of three people including the military should run things and transitional government.”

On 27 January 2011, Mohamed ElBaradei returned to Egypt amid the biggest mass protest in the country since the military came to power in the country in 1952. In his words as “agent of change and an advocate for democracy” which had begun two days earlier, on 25 January 2011 folowing the tradtion of his father protesting the Egyptian military dictator at its outset. ElBaradei declared himself ready to lead a transitional government if that was the will of the nation, saying that: “If [people] want me to lead the transition, I will not let them down”.[55] Subsequently, “when he joined protesters Friday after noon prayers, police fired water cannons at him and his supporters. On 28 January 2011, ElBaradei was reported to have been placed under house arrest in Egypt. He joined Tahrir Square with the rest of the protestors against Mubarak regime and spoke directly to the people, stating that they “have taken back their  rights” and that they cannot go back.

His arrival became controversial largely because of the long periods of time he has spent outside of the country.

ElBaradei  a born lawyer  raised in Cairo,  from a family of  attorney Mostafa ElBaradei who was in permanent  confronting with the Egyptian Military government led Gamal Abdel Nasserby as a head of the  strong  Egyptian Bar Association. He grew up with a militant father  fighting for  democratic rights,  free press and  legal system in Egypt .

He masters like most of the Egyptian of  his generation, English, and French, and off course Arabic his mother tongue. He studied law in Cairo University  and like the author of the article studied in  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva Switzerland.    1964  up unto 1980 worked in the Egyptian  Ministry of External Affairs,  while working for his country be able to graduated in in International Law at the New York University School of Law in 1974.. In 1980, worked in the  United Nations Institute for Training and Research. From 1981 to 1987, he was also an Adjunct Professor of International Law at New York University School of Law where he studied. In 1984, he was  the  senior staff member of the IAEA Secretariat, serving as the Agency’s legal adviser (1984 to 1993) and Assistant Director General for External Relations (1993 to 1997).

ElBaradei  became  the  Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency based in Vienna starting  December 1, 1997 up to November 2009.

October 7, 2005, ElBaradei and the IAEA as an organization were announced as joint recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize for their “efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy, for peaceful purposes, is used in the safest possible way”.

The fall of hard Dictator Mubarak announces end all dictators- 2011-2012

2011/2012 the year  the earth is changing  & cleansing  itself while the inhabitants of the planet due to the high rate of the catastrophe are no more linnet to support the incapable tyrant   who reign over them and use the international aid for their personal ends.  The global catastrophes are announcing the end of the dictators around the world. The Tunisia and Egyptian revolt is the being of the end of all dictators.

The Egyptian showed to the world how they will defeat the most outrageous dictator in Africa Hosni Mubarak.  Egyptian resistance is harsher than that of the Tunisia. The coming fight against the African dictators of the Horn of African will be bloody unless their sponsor forces them to relinquished power by depriving them their blind support.

In his last days, the Egyptian dictator ordered his security police to attack the protestors dressed in civil cloths after disarming the protestors?  The security van dashed through civilian protestors and passed crushing itself through. The Egypt police van video is just another example of violence in Egypt. Several journalists have been attacked in the streets of Cairo.

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Despite the chaos, another massive Cairo protest in planned for today Friday, February 4.
The Mubarak ordered the soldiers to shoot on site and at the same time ordered his puppet newly handpicked Prime minster   to excuse for the death of the protestors the last three days.  The  dictator  of the Arabian nights  claimed his 62 years service  at the same time forgetting  Egyptian are beating  and crashed by his security forces in the disguise of  his supports.

Thursday Gunfire erupted in downtown Cairo again Thursday afternoon when anti-government protesters broke out of their barricades on the edge of Tahrir Square. It was the second day of violent clashes between the insurgents and s the security forces disguised as supporters of Egyptian deadly dictator Hosni Mubarak.

Soldiers fired over the protestors’ heads   though they were told to shoot by the dictator in his last days attempt to push them back.  Mubarak’s security forces disguised as his supporters in civil cloths and anti government protestors are well aware that the army has pledged not to use force, rendering the small number of soldiers on the ground ineffectual, reduced at times to trying to wave them away.

The army had attempted to keep the two sides far enough apart so their stone-throwing would be ineffective — planting tanks and soldiers in the no-man’s land of what had become enemy lines — but the protesters’ shift out of Tahrir Square onto open ground near the Nile River greatly complicated the soldiers’ task.

Yom Jumaa  a  potentially larger confrontation loomed Friday, the main prayer day of the Muslim week, when protest organizers have called for a redoubling of efforts to force Mubarak to step aside though he told  reports that he will resign as soon as transitional  regime is set in order to stop  coming  chaos .

His western allies knowing that they will not save their protégée from the Social Tsunami  demanded a swift political transition, the newly appointed  puppet prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, called the storming of the square on Wednesday by pro-Mubarak partisans a “fatal error” and pledged to investigate who had masterminded it, knowing his master the dying dictator Mubarak did it.

On Wednesday the dictator order an onslaught, which left at least dozen people dead and hundreds injured, produced surreal scenes, most notably a horse-and-camel charge by the attackers like the olden war in time of the great Egyptian leader Mohamed Ali. The two sides battled for hours with crude weapons, protestors used – sticks, stones, bottles, cudgels — while the dictator’s security men in civil dress used gunfire and firebombs aimed at the square’s defenders of liberty.

As always the dictator regime has denied fomenting the violence and distanced itself from the storming of the square. But organizers of what had heretofore been peaceful protesters in the square say the assailants — who staged wave after wave of well-coordinated attacks — were acting at the behest of the 82-year-old Egyptian leader and that their ranks included plainclothes police and criminals sprung from jail for that purpose.

Finally on Thursday, unlike the previous day, those disguised as the supports of President Hosni Mubarak, the armed security men were outnumbered. They were also extremely angry, taking out their ire on Western journalists who they see as misrepresenting them as the cause of the continuing violence.

In the afternoon of Thursday, the principal flashpoint remained a contested stretch near the world-famous Egyptian Museum, which abuts Liberation Square. Pro-Mubarak f security forces roamed freely in other downtown areas. Losing ground the security of men was seen confiscating food and water apparently meant for the square’s defenders.

The pro democracy forces captured and detained dozens of pro-Mubarak security attackers, placing them in a makeshift holding area before periodically handing them over to the army, rendering rough justice was sometimes dispensed on the spot for suspected  bought killers of the Dictators

The disguised security forces of Mubarak were attacking foreigners, and foreign journalists in particular, were menaced.  The insurgents took over the city of Cairo, Alexandria and Sinai and set up impromptu checkpoints, pedestrians and motorists were ordered to produce identification _ a token of the vigilante system that has taken hold across Egypt.

In incongruous scenes, some protesters in the square prostrated themselves in prayer while a hail of rocks fell nearby. On the square’s fringes, men smashed railings to make metal clubs. Some people wore motorcycle helmets, or swaddled their heads in blankets.
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The army had attempted to keep the two sides far enough apart so their stone-throwing would be ineffective — planting tanks and soldiers in the no-man’s land of what had become enemy lines — but the protesters’ shift out of Tahrir Square onto open ground near the Nile River greatly complicated the soldiers’ task.

Yom Jumaa  a  potentially larger confrontation loomed Friday, the main prayer day of the Muslim week, when protest organizers have called for a redoubling of efforts to force Mubarak to step aside though he told  reports that he will resign as soon as transitional  regime is set in order to stop  coming  chaos .

His western allies knowing that they will not save their protégée from the Social Tsunami  demanded a swift political transition, the newly appointed  puppet prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, called the storming of the square on Wednesday by pro-Mubarak partisans a “fatal error” and pledged to investigate who had masterminded it, knowing his master the dying dictator Mubarak did it.

On Wednesday the dictator order an onslaught, which left at least five people dead and hundreds injured, produced surreal scenes, most notably a horse-and-camel charge by the attackers like the olden war in time of the great Egyptian leader Mohamed Ali. The two sides battled for hours with crude weapons , protestors used – sticks, stones, bottles, cudgels —  while  the dictators security men in civil used to gunfire and firebombs aimed at the square’s defenders of liberty.

As always the dictator regime has denied fomenting the violence and distanced itself from the storming of the square. But organizers of what had heretofore been peaceful protesters in the square say the assailants — who staged wave after wave of well-coordinated attacks — were acting at the behest of the 82-year-old Egyptian leader and that their ranks included plainclothes police and criminals sprung from jail for that purpose.

Finally on Thursday, unlike the previous day, those disguised as the supports of President Hosni Mubarak, the armed security men were outnumbered. They were also extremely angry, taking out their ire on Western journalists who they see as misrepresenting them as the cause of the continuing violence.

In the afternoon of Thursday, the principal flashpoint remained a contested stretch near the world-famous Egyptian Museum, which abuts Tahrir (Liberation) Square. Pro-Mubarak f security forces roamed freely in other downtown areas. Losing ground the security of men was seen confiscating food and water apparently meant for the square’s defenders.

The pro democracy forces captured and detained dozens of pro-Mubarak security attackers, placing them in a makeshift holding area before periodically handing them over to the army, rendering rough justice was sometimes dispensed on the spot for suspected killers.

The disguised security forces of Mubarak were attacking foreigners, and foreign journalists in particular, were menaced.  The insurgents took over the city of Cairo, Alexandria and Sinai and set up impromptu checkpoints, pedestrians and motorists were ordered to produce identification _ a token of the vigilante system that has taken hold across Egypt.

In incongruous scenes, some protesters in the square prostrated themselves in prayer while a hail of rocks fell nearby. On the square’s fringes, men smashed railings to make metal clubs. Some people wore motorcycle helmets, or swaddled their heads in blankets.

Mubarak fired everybody, but forgot himself as a true dictator…

The overdue Egyptian dictator  Hosni Mubarak appeared on television  late Friday  for the first time since the eruption  of the North African  social Tsunami on the streets of his capital,  refusing to accede to popular demands he fired everybody  but forgot himself  as a  dictators.


The modern Egyptian Pharaoh Mubarak announced that he was dismisses the Egyptian government and that he would see to appointing a new government just in overnight, like he would buy it from down town Giza besides the pyramid.  Arbo African dictator of the Nile not knowing the end has come when he declared  that he will press ahead with social, economic and political reforms after three decades of forgetting. He is not ashamed to praise the security forces’ crackdown on protesters.

Protesters have seized the streets of Cairo, battling police with stones and firebombs, burning down the ruling party headquarters, and defying a night curfew enforced by a military deployment. It is the peak of unrest posing the direst threat to Mubarak in his three decades of authoritarian rule.

The government’s attempts to suppress demonstrations appeared to be swiftly eroding support from the U.S. – suddenly forced to choose between its most important Arab ally and a democratic uprising demanding his ouster. Washington threatened to reduce a $1.5 billion program of foreign aid if Mubarak escalated the use of force.

The protesters were sure to be emboldened by their success in bringing tens of thousands to the streets in defiance of a ban, a large police force, countless canisters of tear gas, and even a nighttime curfew enforced by the first military deployment of the crisis.

While Cairo is burning not be the same again the smoke  rose in cities across Egypt as police cars burned and protesters set the ruling party headquarters in Cairo ablaze. Hundreds of young men tore televisions, fans and stereo equipment from other buildings of the National Democratic Party neighboring the Egyptian Museum, home of King Tutankhamen’s treasures and one of the country’s most popular tourist attractions.

Young men could be seen forming a human barricade in front of the museum to protect it.

The protestors are seen around the city looted banks, smashed cars, tore down street signs the images of the dictator and pelted armored riot police vehicles with paving stones torn from roadways.

Mubarak seemed faced with the choice between a deadly crackdown and major concessions to protesters demanding he step down this year and not hand power to his son, Gamal.

The once-unimaginable scenes of anarchy along the Nile played out on television and computer screens from Algiers to Riyadh, two weeks to the day after protesters in Tunisia drove out their autocratic president. Images of the protests in the smaller North African country emboldened Egyptians to launch four straight days of increasingly fearless demonstrations organized over mobile phone, Face book and Twitter.

The government cut off the Internet and mobile-phone services in Cairo, called the army into the streets and imposed a nationwide night-time curfew. The extreme measures were ignored by tens of thousands of rich, poor and middle-class protesters who united in rage against a regime seen as corrupt, abusive and neglectful of the nearly half of Egypt’s 80 million people who live below the poverty line of $2 a day.

Until Mubarak’s brief appearance on television early Saturday morning, he was ducking from appearance or statement and other senior figures in the regime were also notably absent.

Security officials said there were protests in at least 11 of the country’s 28 provinces, and unrest roiled major cities like Alexandria, Suez, Assiut and Port Said. At least one protester was killed Friday, bringing the death toll for the week of protest to eight.

Demonstrators were seen dragging blooded, unconsciousness fellow protesters to waiting cars and on to hospitals, but no official number of wounded was immediately available.

According to medical sources at least five protesters have been killed and 1,030 wounded in Cairo. Thirteen were killed in Suez and six in Alexandria, putting the current death count at 24.

Women dressed in black veils and wide, flowing robes followed women with expensive hairdos, tight jeans and American sneakers.

The crowd included Christian men with key rings of the cross swinging from their pockets and young men dressed in fast-food restaurant uniforms.

In downtown Cairo, people tossed cans of Pepsi and bottles of water to protesters on the streets below to douse their eyes, as well as onions and lemons to sniff, to cut the sting of the tear gas.

The US is in attainable position being between the hammer and the hard thing. It high time the US changes its position and be to the right time of history to words the Horn of African dictators like Melee Zenawie, since the force of change will eventually burn African dictators too.

Obama administration appealed for Egyptian authorities to respect the rights of citizens and halt the crackdown on swelling anti-government protests. It again urged the government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to bend toward demands for political and economic reform. The State Department urged Americans to defer any non-essential travel to Egypt.

Some of the most serious violence Friday was in Suez, where protesters seized weapons stored in a police station and asked the policemen inside to leave the building before they burned it down. They also set ablaze about 20 police trucks parked nearby. Demonstrators exchanged fire with policemen trying to stop them from storming another police station and one protester was killed in the gun battle.

In Assiut in southern Egypt, several thousand demonstrators clashed with police that set upon them with batons and sticks, chasing them through side streets.
Protesters appeared unfazed by the absence of Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed El Baradei, one of the country’s leading pro-democracy advocates. The former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency was soaked with water cannon as protests erupted after Friday, and then prevented by police from leaving after he returned to his home.

A Face book page run by protesters listed their demands:-

  1. They want Mubarak to declare that neither he nor his son will stand for next presidential elections;
  2. Dissolve the parliament holds new elections;
  3. End to emergency laws giving police extensive powers of arrest and detention;
  4. Release all prisoners including protesters and those who have been in jail for years without charge or trial; and immediately fire the interior minister.

The Egyptian Dictator, Mubarak has not said yet whether he will stand for another six-year term as president in elections this year. He has never appointed a deputy and is thought to be grooming his son Gamal to succeed him despite popular opposition. According to leaked U.S. memos, hereditary succession also does not meet with the approval of the powerful military.

The diehard dictator and his government have shown no hint of concessions to the protesters who want political reform and a solution to rampant poverty, unemployment and rising food prices.

Mubarak continuing the heavy-handed methods used by the security forces the past three days would probably buy the Mubarak regime a little time but could strengthen the resolve of the protesters and win them popular sympathy.

The alternative is to introduce a package of political and economic reforms that would end his party’s monopoly on power and ensure that the economic liberalization policies engineered by his son and heir apparent Gamal over the past decade benefit the country’s poor majority.

Even if he lift the emergency laws in force since 1981, loosen restrictions on the formation of political parties and publicly state  he will  not stand for another six-year term in elections this year, will not save him.

Egypt’s four primary Internet providers – Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr – all stopped moving data in and out of the country at 12:34 A.M. Friday, according to a network security firm monitoring the traffic. Telecom experts said Egyptian authorities could have engineered the unprecedented cutoff with a simple change to the instructions for the companies’ networking equipment.

The Internet appeared to remain cut off in Cairo but was restored in some smaller cities Friday morning. Cell-phone text and Blackberry Messenger services were all cut or operating sporadically in what appeared to be a move by authorities to disrupt the organization of demonstrations.

The African and the rest of the Arabic dictators will soon pay the same price and not one will save them from the coming street social Tsunami of 2011. We heard many dictators are moving their families to the west fearing the coming social eruptions.

Egypt’s Sectarianism & Its regional Implications in Church attacks

The recent sectarian destruction of Egyptian Coptic church in Egypt it’s ha long historical roots. Since the introduction of Islam in Egypt there has been confrontation between the two Abrhamic root religions.  I n the past the Abyssinian church was given arch Bishop from Egypt for over its first 1500 years history. In return the Ethiopian Kings had had responsibilities for the protection over the Egyptian& Nubian Christians. This was done either by direct writing the Egyptian rulers or using the Nile as a deterrent force against Egyptian rulers.  In 1950’s for the 1st time Ethiopia had severed its relation with the Egyptian Copts and start naming its own Abuna (patriarch). Both sisterly churches even reached to rivalry and are disputing for the guard of the Key of the Holy sepulcher   in the Old city Jerusalem. Since the Islamic insurrection on the Nubian and Egyptian Churches stop being under the protection of the Ethiopian Negus he was also the spiritual head of the Church.

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In the past few years the Egyptian churches have been victim of sectarian attacks. In Ethiopia the sisterly Church has lost its force since the fall of the Negus 1974 Revolution. Thus the church in Abyssinia even did not condemn the burning of the churches let alone to take a position in their favor.


The last few days, Christian churches have been attacked not only in Egypt but also in Nigeria, and Iraq. Attacks against Christians are not uncommon in the Islamic world, driven by local issues and groups, but also coordinated, international groups at least in the point of view of the Egyptian authorities. There is a strong case to be made for the idea that there is nothing new in all of this.


Due to the concordance events in three countries match, the Egyptians are claiming   regional coordinated connections. For them the   attacks are not coincidental, a coordinated campaign is being conducted against Christian churches at least in these three countries.

A period of transition in Egypt, Iraq and Nigeria where the Islamic forces would like to put their domino with the help of extra territorial support.  No firm new government is in place, no dynamic leadership is provided the three strategic countries accompanied by sectarian upheavals. If the radical Islamists assert themselves now, they could well draw down the wrath of the security services. In that case, they would be no worse off than they were before. But if the impending succession crisis divides already sclerotic states, it might open the door to a resurgence of radical Islamism, in Jos Nigeria, in Baghdad in Iraq and in aging seen of the Egyptian presidency.

Nile long waited water war is declared, Ethiopia is beating drums against Egypt የአባይ ጦርነት ነጋሪት በወያኔ መመታት ተጀመረ።

In the Imperial Ethiopia war was declared from the king of king’s palace with a great drum known as Negariet.  Ethiopia and Egypt had engaged in wars in their respective past and ancient past histories. According to the Antiquities writer Flavius Josephus (37 – c.100 AD/CE) that Egypt won once against Ethiopia with an army led by the Patriarch Moses around the Nile in the Lake Tana at the source of the Blue Nile.  In the later days in the time of the 25th Dynasty the Ethiopian kings Shebitku  (698-690BC) , Taharqa (690-664 -BC ) ruled over Egypt.

In the past Ethiopian Kings had declared war against Egypt to protect the Copts by using the Nile as deterrence. The Egyptians accepted the Ethiopian demand as the return of the cross of Queen Helen of Byzantines given to the Christian Churches of Jesus found today in St. Mary of Lalibela menaced by the Nile in the past. Ethiopian tradition is full of tells how the kings used to Nile as an arm against the Islamic invention in the past.

In recent times Egypt lost two principal wars against Ethiopia at Gundet 1875 & Gura in 1876 and on the Red Sea shores at the fall of the Ottoman Empire which saved Ethiopia and Sudan from being a part of Egypt once for all.

Today the Ethiopian Strong Man the dictator Melese Zenawie has started beating the drum of war against Egypt. He was born in the historical capital of Ethiopia Adwa, where to this day two of the captured Egyptian canon from the Battle of Gura still stands. The dictator grew playing with this 100 years canons dreaming with a legend of war with Egypt which was won by the King of kings and Ras Alula. The genocidal dictator wanted to win the heart and the minds of Ethiopians by menacing the 2nd strong Army of the Continent after South Africa the dream of his childhood. The Egyptians preferred to play low profile. The new  king of the Nile the Axumite Melese Zenawie did bit his lips when he declared that he will bit Egypt in the coming water wars with his army of  half million famine dry bones, who are surviving from the  a meal from international donation. He has been preparing the African and Ethiopian minds for such eventual outcome.

Now the ball is in the hands of the Egyptian leaders if they are going to accept the Nile Waters to be deviated and used highly commercial farms owned by the international Grabbers. Egypt is caught with election dilemma right now. Melese rugged the May 2010 election won with a record never seen in any Dictator capitals by scoring  99.6% of the votes in his favor.

Horn of  Africa’s self  proclaimed   King of the Waters  declared  out rightly without respecting the sensibility of the Egyptians and other Nile  riparian states in the following terms :-

“Egypt could not win a war with Ethiopia over the River Nile and is also supporting rebel groups in an attempt to destabilize the Horn of Africa nation, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawie said in an interview.”

‘Such declaration would come out only from a mouth of war monger not from a responsible leader from the African Unity capital Addis Ababa against one of its member states.

Recent  refusal of  Melse Zenawie’s  to compromise and  understanding put the  riparian  countries in a dead lock  for  more than a decade of contentious talks  by  claiming reparation  from  colonial  injustice of a previous Nile water treaty signed in 1929 which put Egypt and Sudan  in a dilemma  and refused to sign. Colonial treaties are the basis for even the existence of Sudan and the rest of Africans as a country.  If you touch one of the colonial treaties all will scramble.  Melese Zenawie recently recognized and gave lands to Sudan based on his own treaty as a payment for  Sudan in order not host  his oppositions in its soil. The fall of the Nile Colonial treaty will start war even with Sudan and is the being of the end for the AU which is based on the   1964 Cairo agreement to respect the entire colonial heritage based on the sacro saint frontiers designed by the colonialists. This will be the brining of long post colonial African wars declared by the Water dictator Melese Zenawie.

Under the original colonial pact Egypt is entitled to 55.5 billion cubic meters a year, the lion’s share of the Nile’s total flow of around 84 billion cubic meters, despite the fact some 87 percent of the water originates in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Kenya signed a new deal to share the waters in May against the aforementioned colonial one. This was done, by the instigation of Melese Zenawie which will put an end the colonial treaties   even to the Existent of Egypt and Sudan as a country. Thus provoking Egypt to call it a “national security” issue.

The Melese the self declared  king of the waters words were not in vain. He has built five huge dams over the last decade and has begun construction on a new $1.4 billion hydropower facility — the biggest in Africa menacing even the survival of Egypt and Sudan. Egypt, almost totally dependent on the Nile and threatened by climate change, is closely watching hydroelectric dam construction in the upstream countries trying to work with the Dictator playing in his games by investing in Ethiopia.

Melese from childhood grew dreaming the 1870’s war with Egypt, and had prepared to punish them with waters in any case.

He said  not to be happy with the rhetoric coming from the Egyptians but dismissed the claims of some analysts that war could eventually erupt.

“I am not worried that the Egyptians will suddenly invade Ethiopia,” Meles told Reuters in an interview. “Nobody who has tried that has lived to tell the story. I don’t think the Egyptians will be any different and I think they know that.”

The five signatories of the new deal have given the other Nile Basin countries one year to join the pact before putting it into action. Sudan has backed Egypt while Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi have so far refused to sign.

“The Egyptians have yet to make up their minds as to whether they want to live in the 21st or the 19th century,” Meles told Reuters in an interview, referring to the fact the original treaty was negotiated by colonial administrators. In reality it is Melese who lives back in 1870’s.

Meles accused Egypt of trying to destabilize his country by supporting several small rebel groups but said it was a tactic that would no longer work.

“If we address the issues around which the rebel groups are mobilized then we can neutralize them and therefore make it impossible for the Egyptians to fish in troubled waters because there won’t be any,” he said

The Egyptian President replied to the provocation of the Ethiopians strong man:

“Egypt’s ties with Ethiopia are friendly and dismissed an Ethiopian assertion that Cairo was backing rebel groups in the Horn of Africa nation. This is the first time we hear that we support any group in any country. This is not something we do with any nation and this is not our form of conduct,” Mubarak told the state-run al-Ahram newspaper, making his first remarks on the issue.” The Egyptian Ryes further added that “”We have very amicable relations with Ethiopia,”  “I was surprised by these comments because this is something we cannot do with any Arab or African country.”

After Meles’ remarks, Egypt’s foreign ministry said it was “amazed” by Ethiopia’s suggestion that Cairo might turn to military action in a row over the Nile waters, saying it did not want confrontation.

The Nile is a vital water and energy source for the nine countries stretching more than 6,600 km (4,100 miles) from Lake Victoria to the Mediterranean.   Melese was not born in the Nile regions of Ethiopia and never knew the Nile as a child but Tekeze River one of the main tributary of the Nile, where he built on of the megalomaniac dam to this day.

Melese revived his long childhood fantasy by declaring war against Egypt:

“Hopefully that shoud convince the Egyptians that, as direct conflict will not work, and as the indirect approach is not as effective as it used to be, the only sane option will be civil dialogue.” What he meant by direct talk his to destroy the colonial treaties which will have a direct effect in all colonial legacies since one is connected with the other. He is ushering the end of the Horn of Africa as we know it in the post colonial period.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni in July called for a scheduled November meeting of the nine countries to be attended by heads of state. Meles said that would not happen now rather he declared war and is taking every thing in his hands without consulting the other riparians .

The last meeting of all sides ended in stalemate and angry exchanges between water ministers at a news conference in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

Egyptian Water Minister Mohamed Nasreddin Allam told Reuters at that meeting “Ask the Egyptians to leave their culture and go and live in the desert because you need to take this water and to add it to other countries? “.

The War of Words is declared now the true ball is in the hands of Egyptians when they see their beloved Nile water is shrinking   down slowly from their face by the dams and irrigations canals of the Ethiopian Dictator in the fields of commercial grabbed farms. Traditional Ethiopian farmers do not use the Nile rather the rain, but the news commercial crops like rice needs huge quantities of water.  The dilemma is some Egyptians companies are investing in the grabbed land of highland Abyssinia. It is hard whom to trust up riverine or down streamers for a peaceful out come ? UN must interveane before its is too late?

Prof. Muse Tegegne

Riparian

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Related

Ethiopia Says It Has Evidence That Egypt Supported Rebel Movements

Egypt rejects Meles rebel claims

Ethiopia PM warns of Nile war

Water or Egypt’s role?

Countdown to a showdown


The Economist‘ Looks At Water Wars: What, No Ground Water


LAMU Archipelago the New Eastern Africa gate way for land locked Ethiopia & Southern Sudan Muse Tegegne, Prof.

The new Kenyan Lamu port is the futuristic  Eastern African gate way  for the  land  locked countries like Ethiopia, Southern Sudan, Uganda  and central African Republic. While ports like Mobassa and Dar es Salaam are over stretched  due to their increasing Great Lake markets. The Eastern African ports like Djibouti Barbara Asseb seem stranded by the belligerent conflict, increasing piracy and  Somalian conflict engulfing Yemen. The futur of Red Sea has been endagnered due to geopolitical change in the region.

Geo-strategy

The extraction of  natural gas from the  Indian Ocean region stretching to  Ethiopia, Egypt, and other countries of the Red Sea region will  be  precipitating a collapse in price for gas and petroleum, will further create un expected increase in the conflict  the passage through the Red Sea.

China and Japan Financing

Concerning  the budget of  construction for this big project, China here is particularly interesting in the context of the political economy of the regions  and her increasing  role on the continent. The Japan is   planning to build a pipeline from South Sudan to share from the source of the region seeing the conflict in the Gulf and Red Sea costs to assure her energy supply.  Lamu  will enable China far easier access to Africa’s East coast as inn the historical past with this port.

China’s  environmentally reckless attitude in its Africa policy has increased  her critics due to  the social and environmental impacts of a new port will off course a have lasting effect on the  traditional Swahili   fisherman unless the necessary measures are taken to enhance them too cope with the coming inevitable destruction to their traditional habitat.

The United States, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, India are  financial supporters of various aspects associated with this project.

Egypt Further Menaced

Egypt since the recent Nile accord which was singed against its wishes by the countries of the Nile Basin has forced her to  covertly support radicals in the Horn to  weaken Ethiopia and  to be able to revive its dominance of the Red Sea and the sea lane which links to Egypt’s Suez Canal. Estimated Ethiopian gas reserves, were reported at 12.46 TCF, will  be expanded as it has descovred great gass reserve in Ogadean. Malaysian State-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional  is working  in its reserves in the Ogaden basin region of Ethiopia. Petronas is one of about 85 companies which have oil and gas exploration licenses in Ethiopia, but the Malaysia must soon pump gas  though  safer pipe to Kenya than the ever conflicting  Red Sea through Djibouti.  This surely will  thus diminishing the importance of the Sues Canal , Dijibuti and Asseb, Berebara as  a door way to world energy  when  natural gas bust out and repalce  petroleum in the world market  very very soon.

Egypt sooner than later  must enter in an open conflict in the horn of Africa supporting one or more of the  faction in order to survive by assuring the Red Sea as a dominance passage to the new geopolitical gas. Egypt further must stop Ethiopia and Kenya from repartitioning Somalia as recently incited  .

Ethiopia in search  a gate way

Governments  in    a land  landlocked countries  like Ethiopia, Uganda, Central African Republic and  Southern Sudan  Must use Lamu  port  than any other port  in the region  for  secure their  exportation.  The Ethiopian regime’s plan to build a recent pipeline to the Somaliland port of Barbara will not be viable since the opposite   Islamic Unity party took power in July 2010 and more  instability will follow if it join Mogadishu.   Any sensible government in Ethiopia must back Lamu project as the only viable   and safe sea port for future gas or any exportation to the fast growing  Asia,  South Africa and even as well as  to  Europe.

The estimates for the construction cover 1,000 acres in the region of Manda Bay in Lamu District   including plans for an oil refinery and terminal, international airport and railway track to Juba in Southern Sudan.

Prof. MT

Multi-billion-shilling Lamu project now taking shape

By DAVID OKWEMBAH dokwemba@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, September 4 2010 at 22:12

Construction of Kenya’s second seaport in Lamu is taking shape with sketches already drawn and aerial photomapping being done in towns along the route.

The government’s lead consultant on the multi-billion-shilling project revealed that detailed designs for the first three berths are ready while hydraulic surveys have been completed.

Dr Mutule Kilonzo and the minister for Transport Amos Kimunya separately said the Japanese consultants hired by the government last April would submit the financial implications of constructing the port in a report next month.

Lamu Port and Manda Bay

•Standard gauge railway line to Juba
•Road network
•Oil pipelines (Southern Sudan and Ethiopia)
Oil refinery at Lamu Three
•Airports
Three resort cities (Lamu, Isiolo and Lake Turkana shores)

The transport corridor is expected to serve an estimated population of 85 million Ethiopians and another 15 million from Southern Sudan. Once completed, LAPSSET is intended to increase business opportunities in tourism, agriculture and manufacturing.

Japan Port Consultant was given 10 months last May to carry out a feasibility study on the port as well as give an estimated cost for the project. During the last financial year, the government allocated Sh500 million for the studies. “In one-and-a-half months the port will have taken shape,” Dr Kilonzo said in an interview.

The government’s lead consultant said aerial photomapping was ongoing in Isiolo and Garissa that are among towns to be served by a standard gauge railway line that will run in to Southern Sudan. A transcontinental highway is to run parallel to the railway line, giving landlocked countries like Ethiopia and Southern Sudan access to the Indian Ocean coast.

Dr Kilonzo noted that a final report on the various surveys, including hydraulic, bathymetric (study of underwater depth) and geophysical would be ready at the end of next month. He said the consultants from Japan had also visited Southern Sudan and Ethiopia to gather information for the projected port.

Officials in Juba and Addis Ababa are reported to have expressed high expectations on the port. Mr Kimunya said the consultants were conducting studies on the speed of water and wind as well as carrying out surveys in the Indian Ocean and Manda Bay. “They need to establish the depth of the sea and whether dredging is necessary,” he said.

The ministry of Lands has set aside 1,000 acres for the port’s quay in what many see as Kenya’s new coastal town that may link Africa’s northeastern coast to the West. Mr Kimunya confirmed that the proceeds of the sale of Nairobi’s Grand Regency hotel to a Libyan company amounting to Sh2.5 billion were still being held by the Treasury for the project.

“The money is held in trust by Treasury for the project,” the minister said of the project, reported to be close to President Kibaki’s heart. The minister cautioned land speculators who have swarmed Lamu hoping to make a killing when the government eventually embarks on the construction of the port. “They (speculators) should know that land in Lamu will not be acquired by government,” he said.

China and Japan are among the countries that have shown an interest in funding the Lamu Port project.

LAMU PORT MAYBE THE WHITEST OF ALL WHITE ELEPHANTS – JAINDI KIS

According to theory, grandly designed infrastructure projects tend to pose high corruption risks. Corrupt influence may be brought to bear especially at the design stage on projects, their scope and components made unnecessarily complex just to increase the potential for corrupt earnings especially during procurement.

These days, anti-corruption watchdogs advise that all large and complex infrastructure projects be subjected to thorough corruption-risk assessment right from their feasibility studies stage to the very end. I make the remarks as an entry to point to a discussion on the multi-billion shilling Lamu Port project.

By all accounts, this is a grandly-designed project with multiple components. Is it not just astonishing that we are going to pay the consultant a massive Sh3.2 billion for a nine-month feasibility study?

Already, the consultant, Japan Port Consultants of Tokyo, has been paid Sh500 million hardly three months after being contracted.

The thinking behind the conception of this project is the following:

First, the government recognises that it will not be able to raise the money to finance the actual building of this mammoth project. In the circumstances, it is convinced that the best option is to invite private sector operators to finance and build the port, and then operate it for a given length of time under a concession before it is eventually returned to the government’s ownership. The arrangement is what is known as a “build operate and transfer” project, commonly referred to as BOT.

The billions of shillings we are spending on the studies and “detailed designs” are meant to generate information the government will use to lure interested investors. Indeed, part of the reason why we are paying the colossal amount for the studies is because the Japanese have been asked to go to the extent of producing “detailed designs” for several components of the project.

Several questions arise. Why are we spending billions of shillings of taxpayers’ money to do detailed designs for projects we intend to sell to third parties who will have their own ideas of how to build the port? Does this make economic sense?

Why can’t we just do inexpensive basic studies and leave actual detail-designing to be handled by prospective BOT investors, depending on their financial and technical capacities? As it is, we risk ending up with piles of expensively produced designs for projects which might not see the light of day.

We have several cases where public institutions have had to pay millions of shillings for designs of projects, which did not take off.

Last year, the National Hospital Insurance Fund paid Sh390 million to consultants who did detailed designs for a training centre the fund had planned for in 2001 in the Karen area. The project did not materialise.

Then there is the case where the State-controlled Kenya Re-insurance Corporation in 1997 spent hundreds of millions of shillings for designs for a multi-million shilling airport transit hotel, which was never built.

Clearly, the scope of feasibility studies job for the Lamu Port project has been made unnecessarily complex. In all, it has a total of seven components. It encompasses a master-plan, including detailed designs for the first three berths.

Then there will be studies for a standard gauge railway line between Lamu and Juba, an oil pipeline from Lamu to Lokichoggio and Moyale, an oil refinery, new road networks, a new airport and a free port, and fibre-optic cables. In addition, three resort cities are to be built at Manda Bay, Isiolo and on the shores of Lake Turkana.

Without doubt, the Lamu project is a good one. The whole idea of creating an alternative transport corridor makes a great deal of sense. If we don’t do a good job of the cost and scope of the feasibility study, we may end up with corruption and several white elephants.

Nile & Omotic Riparians are considered as ” butterflies” to be eliminated by the Ethiopian Pharaoh Zenawie Prof. Muse Tegegne

The Ethiopian Pharaoh, the shameless Melese Zenawie announced publically he will continue to pursue the building of the death dam on the river Omo and on the  source of the Blue Nile. He called the people riparians as Butterflies to be eliminated. This is his official defiant declaration even after the African Development Bank and the European Bank blocked his megalomaniac dreams of water power financing at the expense of the people of Egypt, Southern Ethiopia and Kenya. His Dam on omo river will obliged the Kenyans to use the rest of the rivers that otherwise would have  streamed   to Egypt in their land,  since Lake Turkana  soon will dry immidately after the finishing of the Gebe III.

Dictator’s  raged victory of the election of 23 May 2010, with dumped result of over 99% of the vote was a mock to all  democracy loving nations. He publically insulted the US dam and that of the Survival international in the video here in Amharic below. He staged a demonstration in Washington DC to force the US government to change position against Egypt and support his megalomaniac damming projects over the Nile head waters. Melese the Sick Man of the Horn of Africa does not care for any environment destruction of the Ethiopian water basin. Melese to our surprise and that of the whole world was elected to represent the African continent on the international meetings where he produced a shameful result.

Melese Zenewie the Genocidal- Megalomaniac-Raciest-Mad Man must be halted before he destroys the region by war and unprecedented conflict  through environmental cataclysm. This could be done by collective intervention supported by the UN. The UN Security Council must consider this sick man in power   seriously than any eventual atomic treat in any part of the world. Since he actively produces destruction by proxy terrorism in Somalia,   damming in most radical and expedient manor, by financing his way to power through famine and keep perpetuating the death of millions through endemic hunger.


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PM Meles – Whether You Like It Or Not Ethiopia will build Gibe III!

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The Karo (or Kara), with a population of about 1000 - 1500 live on the east banks of the Omo River in south Ethiopia. Here, a Karo mother sits with her children. © Eric Lafforgue/Survival

European Investment Bank abandons Ethiopia mega dam5 August 2010

The European Investment Bank (EIB) has announced it is no longer considering funding Africa’s tallest dam, in Ethiopia. The hydroelectric dam, called Gibe III, has drawn international criticism because of the devastating effect it is likely to have on the food security of at least eight Ethiopian tribes.

In a statement, the EIB claims to have withdrawn from Gibe III because the Ethiopian government has found alternative funding sources for the dam. However the ICBC, the state-owned Chinese bank recently discussed as a potential funder, recently made it clear that the deal is not yet settled and far from guaranteed.

Before stepping back from Gibe III, the EIB completed a review of existing environment and social impact studies for the dam. The review confirms concerns from Survival and others that the lives of the tribes living in the Lower Omo Valley, downstream of Gibe III, will be fundamentally altered and their food security threatened if the dam is complete. The study also acknowledges that these tribes have not been adequately consulted.

The Lower Omo River in south west Ethiopia is home to eight different tribes whose population is about 200,000. They have lived there for centuries.

However the future of these tribes lies in the balance. A massive hydro-electric dam, Gibe III, is under construction on the Omo. When completed it will destroy a fragile environment and the livelihoods of the tribes, which are closely linked to the river and its annual flood.

Hamar girls display their ornate hair and adornments.
Hamar girls display their ornate hair and adornments.
© Eric Lafforgue/Survival

Salini Costruttori, an Italian company, started construction work on the Gibe III dam at the end of 2006, and has already built a third of it.

China’s largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has agreed to fund part of the construction of the dam. The Ethiopian government has also asked the African Development Bank and the Italian government to fund Gibe III, and they are expected to make a decision soon.

Survival and various regional and international organisations believe that the Gibe IIIDam will have catastrophic consequences for the tribes of the Omo River, who already live close to the margins of life in this dry and challenging area.

We are calling on the African Development Bank and other potential funders not to support this project until a complete and independent social and environmental impact study is carried out and the tribal peoples have been fully consulted and given their free informed and prior consent.

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Mubarak pledges to keep Nile water in Egypt

While inaugurating the new Saft el-Laban corridor in Giza, President Mubarak assured that Nile water “will not extend beyond Egyptian borders.”

Mubarak further called for making optimal use of Nile water, carrying out seawater desalination projects, and using modern technology to develop new types of crops that can be irrigated with salt water in order to satisfy the growing demand for food.

Diaa Eddin al-Qoussi, former advisor to the minister of irrigation, told Al-Masry Al-Youm that Mubarak’s statements clearly demonstrate that Egypt will not give up its Nile water quota in order to satisfy Israel. He added that Mubarak’s statements further emphasize that Egypt rejects any negotiations which aim to bring Nile water to Israel.

Maghawri Shehata Diab, former president of Minufiya University and a water expert, said Mubarak’s statements reflect a clear understanding of the geographical nature of the Nile Basin, as well as of the political and legal dimensions governing the distribution of water.

In related news, Kenya has announced that it is carrying out an assessment of the impact of Ethiopia’s Gibe III Dam. The dam, intended to generate hydroelectric power, would become the second largest dam in Africa after Egypt’s High Dam in Aswan.

The massive dam is scheduled to be completed by 2012 at an estimated cost of US$1.76 billion. Construction of the dam is mainly financed by the African Development Bank. The World Bank withdrew funding for the project under pressure from non-governmental organizations.

The dam will generate 1,800 megawatts of electricity, according to the Ethiopian government, which also says that Kenya has pledged to purchase some of the energy produced by the dam. As a result, Kenyan environmental groups have accused their government of taking greater interest in the well-being of Ethiopians.

The Ethiopian government says that environmental impact studies have shown that the dam will not negatively impact life in any local communities.

The Kenyan Minister of Power said that the Kenyan government and the European Investment Bank will both study the impact of the dam. The results of both studies will be submitted to the Kenyan government in December.

The Kenyan government’s decision to examine the potential impact of building the dam came in response to local and international pressure from rights groups. These groups cited Egypt’s threat of military intervention if Ethiopia carried out any projects that would intervene with the flow of the Blue Nile.

Translated from the Arabic Edition.

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