No Room for Debate on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? by\u00a0Lori Pottinger<\/strong><\/p>\n

GERD is being built in Ethiopia near the Sudan border<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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International Rivers has been\u00a0caught in the crossfire<\/a>between Ethiopia and Egypt as they struggle over a large dam being built on the Nile River by Ethiopia. Ethiopia\u2019s government turned its sights on International Rivers after we published a leaked report by the international panel of experts charged with reviewing project documents for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Our summary of their report\u00a0<\/a>describes a number of outstanding concerns raised by the non-binding panel, including the inadequacy of the hydrological-impacts study (a key document for understanding how the dam will affect people and ecosystems downstream).<\/p>\n
In response, Ethiopia\u2019s \u201cnational panel of experts\u201d (which includes two of the 10 members of the Panel) issued a\u00a0 histrionic statement<\/a>\u00a0that claims our organization is backed by \u201cEgyptian financiers,\u201d seeks to prevent Ethiopia from developing, and other provocative and groundless charges. Unhelpfully, their statement does not actually address the concerns raised by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE), nor our summary of them. You can\u00a0 read the IPoE report<\/a>and come to your own conclusions.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia\u2019s wild allegations have been quite popular with a certain category of internet attack dogs, and these folks aren\u2019t likely to be swayed by what we say here. However, we can state unequivocally:\u00a0International Rivers does not take funding from any government institution<\/strong>, including Egypt. We are not \u201ctaking sides\u201d \u2013 we are impartial when it comes to critiquing destructive river projects and poor river management around the globe, including inEgypt<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0 Sudan<\/a>. The Nile is just one of many basins where conflicts are arising from engineering rivers for a narrow purpose with a limited group of beneficiaries, while a much larger group of people is left to suffer the consequences. These conflicts are exacerbated when transboundary rivers are \u201cdeveloped\u201d for hydroelectricity in isolation and in secrecy. Readers can learn more about our cautions regarding the myriad of dams and diversions planned by many riparian nations along the Nile in our 2003 paper\u00a0 Can the Nile States Dam Their Way to Cooperation?<\/a>, which presciently noted that poorly planned large dams could worsen tensions over the Nile.<\/p>\n
We recognize Ethiopia\u2019s interest in updating the Nile Basin Treaty, support economic development that winnows Ethiopia\u2019s poverty rates, and acknowledge that the Ethiopian Government must chart its own course of development.\u00a0Our experience as an organization with expertise in hydropower and rivers, and as part of a global civil society movement of dam-affected peoples, leads us to conclude that maintaining healthy rivers and the ecosystems and communities they support is key to long-term prosperity.<\/strong>\u00a0Our experience studying mega-dams in Africa reveals these projects have consistently\u00a0failed to reduce poverty<\/a>, and have been a costly and ineffective solution for increasing access for the millions of people on the continent without reliable access to electricity. We believe a greater focus on decentralized energy solutions\u00a0<\/a>will more quickly, cheaply and effectively begin to close the yawning gap of Africa\u2019s energy poverty.<\/p>\n
The GERD Panel concluded a year ago that more studies \u2013 some of them quite substantial, but also standard practice for a project of this magnitude \u2013 must be undertaken to fully assess GERD\u2019s impacts. \u00a0Drawing upon this evaluation by an international team of technical experts, International Rivers has called for a halt to the hurried construction so that critical information on the project\u2019s impacts can be assessed and steps to reduce impacts agreed upon by all nations involved in the dispute.<\/p>\n
To the government of Ethiopia, we respectfully submit that\u00a0the greatest threat to the GERD project is not International Rivers\u2019 publicizing the Panel\u2019s report, but rather the escalation of tensions resulting from the dam\u2019s poor planning process.<\/strong>\u00a0Such a monumental project should be accompanied by an equally monumental effort to gain acceptance from people who will be affected by it, and a commitment to adopt best practices for managing this important shared river. The next step is to begin the robust studies as called for by the Panel of Experts.<\/p>\n
At this writing, Egypt and Ethiopia\u00a0remain at an impasse<\/a>\u00a0while construction of the dam proceeds at a rapid pace. This serious conflict \u2013 borne of decades of mistrust between the two nations and controversial treaties over the use of Nile waters \u2013 is being enflamed by Ethiopia\u2019s rushed and secretive process. This is what threatens the viability and success of this project.\u00a0We urge the Nile states to find constructive ways to forge national and regional development strategies that ensure the long-term health of this critically important river, and build resilience to\u00a0climatic uncertainty.<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/iframe> \n—————<\/p>\n<h1>GERD Panel of Experts Report: Big Questions Remain<\/h1>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\nConstruction on the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalrivers.org\/node\/2272\">Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam<\/a>(GERD) \u2013 Africa\u2019s biggest hydropower dam \u2013 began based on piecemeal preliminary studies and design documents, with only a very basic analysis of how the project would affect downstream neighbors, according to the 2013 final report by an international panel of experts established to evaluate the scheme. The megadam is being built on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and has created conflict with Egypt over its downstream impacts; the experts’ study confirms Egypt\u2019s concerns that the project\u2019s impacts could be significant and are not well understood.<\/p>\nThe Ethiopian government\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ertagov.com\/news\/index.php\/component\/k2\/item\/774-international-panel-of-experts-on-gerd-releases-its-report\">reported last year<\/a>\u00a0that the panel\u2019s report \u201cshowed that the Dam offers high benefit for all the three countries and would not cause significant harm on both the lower riparian countries\u201d, while Egypt has repeatedly said\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailynewsegypt.com\/2014\/03\/19\/foreign-ministry-announces-official-stance-gerd\/\">the report calls for more analysis of downstream impacts<\/a>. Because the report was not made public, neither side could be vetted. Egypt has called for mediation if further studies are not allowed; at this writing, Ethiopia had refused, and was continuing with dam construction.<\/p>\nIn March 2014, International Rivers received a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalrivers.org\/files\/attached-files\/international_panel_of_experts_for_ethiopian_renaissance_dam-_final_report_1.pdf\">leaked copy of the report<\/a>. \u00a0The report documents numerous problems with existing analysis and a lack of analysis on a number of critical issues. The panel recommends further investigation into the dam\u2019s hydrological impacts, including on downstream countries\u2019 water supplies and power generation; risks from climate change, and geotechnical issues. The panel recommends \u201ca full transboundary environmental and social impact assessment \u2026 conducted jointly by the three countries.\u201d<\/p>\nThe 10-member panel included two members from each of the three riparians (Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan), plus four international experts agreed upon by the governments. A geotechnical expert group was added later. The main panel met for about a year, and had four field visits to the dam site. While the panel’s members were granted access to many key project documents (all of which remain confidential at this time), some key reports were not shared with them, including the critical geotechnical assessments for the main and saddle dams, and project cost-benefit analyses.<\/p>\nOne international dam expert who has seen the report states that it shows that construction on the project is proceeding on \u201can aggressively accelerated schedule\u201d with little room for adjusting key elements of dam design to reduce harm or prevent problems. A number of key studies for the project are described by the panel as being outdated or in process. While references are made to some specific international standards being adhered to, overall, the process described seems chaotic and incomplete. It is also clear that there is precious little oversight on Africa\u2019s largest dam project to date. While the international panel has brought a type of oversight, it may be too little, too late \u2013 and with too little teeth; it seems the panel does not have a continuing role in ensuring best practices as construction proceeds.<\/p>\nThe panel\u2019s report is almost a year old at this writing, yet its members have been mostly silent since their report was completed (as far as we know, none of the panelists have made public statements about the project). The Egyptian and Ethiopian governments continue the war of words, while at the same time construction on the megadam proceeds, and questions raised by the panel remain unanswered.<\/p>\nGoing forward,\u00a0International Rivers recommends construction on the project be halted<\/strong>until all necessary studies recommended by the panel are completed, and a process is in place for ensuring public accountability on the project. Given the panel’s findings, Egypt\u2019s call for mediation in the process is reasonable, and donor governments and international bodies should support such a process.<\/p>\nThe following summarizes some of the panel\u2019s key findings and recommendations:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Quality of project documents:<\/strong>\u00a0The present design criteria are \u201cquite general, and do not include project- and site-specific conditions \u2026 The most essential geotechnical, seismological, hydro-geological, hydrological, hydraulic and structural design data should be compiled into a consolidated report and not scattered in numerous design reports.\u201d The project\u2019s main design report is outdated and does not reflect numerous and significant design changes to the project.<\/li>\n<li>Safety:\u00a0<\/strong>\u201cThe stability of the main dam and other main structures should be verified under consideration of additional geological and geotechnical findings.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0The panel believes more analysis may be necessary, but without having access to all information on this aspect of the project, cannot be sure. Nonetheless, they do question some assumptions on the project\u2019s \u201cshear strength\u201d and raise concerns about sliding, seepage and other safety issues.\u00a0\u201cIn view of the on-going construction works . . . highest priority shall be given to clarify [dam safety issues] as soon as possible. Structural measures might be needed to stabilize the foundation to achieve the required safety against sliding.\u201d\u00a0The panel also suggests design modifications for the saddle dam and further studies on the spillway dimensions. The panel recommends that the discharge of the \u201cProbable Maximum Flood\u201d used in the dam design be increased.<\/li>\n<li>Downstream changes to water flow:<\/strong>\u00a0First and foremost, \u201cThe (hydrological study) is very basic, and not yet at a level of detail, sophistication and reliability that would befit a development of this magnitude, importance and with such regional impact as GERD.\u201d Project studies looked only at the GERD site. \u201cNo upstream developments are taken into account, and no downstream flow records \u2026 are given as would be needed to assess downstream impacts.\u201d The panel notes that, \u201cgiven the proposed upstream cascade development of similar magnitude than the GERD, the upstream flow records could be of significant importance.\u201d The panel notes that the hydrological report uses questionable estimates of evaporation from the reservoir (a key issue in how much water the dam will \u201cuse\u201d), and recommends further assessments of evaporation. It also notes that the project did not quantify water losses through deep percolation during reservoir filling. Regarding GERD’s impact on Egypt’s water supply, the panel found that\u00a0\u201cmass balances represented in the report of water between the GERD and the High Aswan Dam could not be reconciled given the information presented.\u201d\u00a0The GERD also allows for greater expansion of irrigated cropping in Sudan, which could further reduce flows to Egypt; the panel recommends a detailed study on this issue.<\/li>\n<li>Environmental impacts:<\/strong>\u00a0Surprisingly little information is included on impacts on local people, ecosystems, fisheries or biodiversity. The official Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Report was \u201cstrictly limited to the impact zones located upstream of the dam site in Ethiopia.\u201d Downstream environmental impacts were not considered as being significant, and therefore several related socio-economic impacts are not addressed. Dam height was chosen without consideration of downstream environmental and socio-economic impacts. The panel recommends a full transboundary impact assessment be done.<\/li>\n<li>Climate risks:<\/strong>\u00a0The panel notes that the project did not assess the project\u2019s sensitivity to climate change. A project of this scale and with such heavy reliance on rainfall patterns requires a better understanding of future hydrologic conditions to ensure the highest degree of flexibility and resiliency in its design and operation. The panel recommends a study that looks at the potential influence of climate change on the flow regime at GERD and further downstream.<\/li>\n<li>Sediment and water quality issues:<\/strong>\u00a0The project did not include an analysis of sediment deposition in the reservoir (a troublesome issue for dams on the muddy Nile). The panel notes that sediment flows downstream of the dam will be substantially reduced, with implications for floodplain farming productivity, navigation, Sudan\u2019s brick industry, riverbank erosion, and biodiversity. The panel also recommends additional studies on water quality changes from the project, particularly on methane gas production and the depletion of dissolved oxygen levels in water releases that could harm fisheries and biodiversity downstream.<\/li>\n<li>Dam operations:<\/strong>\u00a0Very little information on how the dam will be operated was given. At a basic level, both present and future needs for \u201cpeaking power versus base power needs to be assessed in more detail,\u201d and \u201cneeds to be taken into account in (project) planning and sizing.\u201d The report requests verification of the 6,000MW installed capacity. Furthermore, the Panel does not indicate if the dam was designed in a way to accommodate \u201cenvironmental flows\u201d (which can be used to mitigate impacts of a dam on a river). In all likelihood this was not considered as the panel writes that “it is not clear whether the present design considers (capacity, functionality) the minimum mean flows of the dry months release to the downstream countries\u201d without use of power generation facilities or the spillway. \u00a0It is also clear that consideration of operation of the GERD in coordination with water systems in Egypt and Sudan was at a very preliminary stage during the writing of this report. The report strongly recommends additional studies of the GERD \u201cin the context of the Eastern Nile System\u201d in order to \u201cquantify the downstream impacts in detail with confidence.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nMore information:<\/p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalrivers.org\/files\/attached-files\/international_panel_of_experts_for_ethiopian_renaissance_dam-_final_report_1.pdf\">Download the full report<\/a><\/p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/zenileabbay.wordpress.com\/2013\/06\/17\/the-international-panel-of-experts-report-on-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam\/\">Ethiopian Government’s official response to the Panel’s findings<\/a><\/p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2014\/01\/egypt-ethiopia-renaissance-dam-negotiations-dead-end.html#\">Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Dam Talks Hit Dead End<\/a><\/p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalrivers.org\/node\/8293\">Read our blog on the controversy generated by leaking this report<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Original Title\u00a0 No Room for Debate on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? by\u00a0Lori Pottinger GERD is being built in Ethiopia near the Sudan border International Rivers has been\u00a0caught in the crossfirebetween Ethiopia and Egypt as they struggle over a large dam being built on the Nile River by Ethiopia. Ethiopia\u2019s government turned its sights on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":25281,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3993],"tags":[1980,4195,4059],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/egypt-ethiopia-end-of-the-road-o.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25279"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/54"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25279\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}