<\/strong><\/p>\n Ethiopia’s known over 80 Ethnio linguistic \u00a0distribution and the existing \u00a0over 200 dialects \u00a0are living \u00a0sources of Woyane’s plan of Balkanization. And \u00a0its means of \u00a0legitimacy \u00a0in power for years to come. Prof. Muse<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n visit www.crisisgroup.org<\/span><\/p>\n Africa Report N\u00b0153 4 September 2009<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n Executive summary<\/span><\/p>\n The Ethiopian Peoples\u2019 Revolutionary Democratic Front<\/span> <\/span>(EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles<\/span> Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia\u2019s political sys<\/span>tem. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state<\/span> <\/span>into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined<\/span> citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The <\/span>intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative<\/span> state for all its people. Yet, despite continued <\/span>economic growth and promised democratisation, there is<\/span> <\/span>growing discontent with the EPRDF\u2019s ethnically defined<\/span> <\/span>state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued inter-<\/span>ethnic conflict. The international community should take<\/span><\/span> Et<\/span><\/span>hiopia\u2019s governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the govern<\/span><\/span>ment.<\/span> W<\/span>ithout genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and<\/span> pr<\/span>essures in Ethiopia\u2019s polities will only grow, greatly incre<\/span>asing the possibility of a violent eruption that would<\/span> destabilise the country and region.<\/span><\/p>\n The endeavour to transform Ethiopia into a federal state is led by the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has dominated the coalition of ethno-nationalist parties that is the EPRDF since the removal in 1991 of <\/span>the Derg, the security services committee that overthrew<\/span> Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974. The EPRDF quickly institutionalised the TPLF\u2019s policy of people\u2019s rights to <\/span>self-determination and self-rule. The federal constitution<\/span> <\/span>ratified in 1994 defined the country\u2019s structure as a multicultural federation based on ethno-national representation.<\/span><\/p>\n The government has created nine ethnic-based regional <\/span>sta<\/span>tes and two federally administered city-states. The result<\/span> i<\/span>s an asymmetrical federation that combines populous<\/span> r<\/span>egional states like Oromiya and Amhara in the centr<\/span>al highlands with sparsely populated and underde<\/span>veloped ones like Gambella and Somali. Although the<\/span> <\/span>constitution vests all powers not attributed to the federal<\/span> <\/span>government in them, the regional states are in fact weak.<\/span><\/p>\n The constitution was applauded for its commitment to <\/span>liberal democracy and respect for political freedoms and<\/span> <\/span>human rights. But while the EPRDF promises democracy<\/span>, <\/span>it has not accepted that the opposition is qualified to take<\/span> power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expres<\/span>sion of differing views and interests as a form of betrayal<\/span>. <\/span>Before 2005, its electoral superiority was ensured by <\/span>th<\/span>e limited national appeal and outreach of the predominantly<\/span> ethnically based opposition parties. Divided and <\/span>di<\/span>sorganised, the reach of those parties rarely went beyond<\/span> <\/span>Addis Ababa. When the opposition was able to challenge at local, regional or federal levels, it faced threats<\/span>, harassment and arrest. With the opportunity in 2005 to take over the Addis Ababa city council in what would have been the first democratic change of a major administration in the country\u2019s history, the opposition w<\/span>ithdrew from the political process to protest flaws in the<\/span> overall election.<\/span><\/p>\n The EPRDF did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal<\/span> and regional elections. The crackdown that year on the opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime is <\/span>willing to ignore popular protest and foreign criticism<\/span> to hold on to power. The 2008 local and by-elections went much more smoothly, in large part because the opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) was<\/span> <\/span>absorbed with internal and legal squabbles, and se<\/span>veral other parties withdrew after their candidates experienced<\/span> severe registration problems. The next fed<\/span>eral <\/span>and regional elections, scheduled for June 2010, most probably<\/span> will be much more contentious, as numerous <\/span>o<\/span>pposition parties are preparing to challenge the EPRDF<\/span>, w<\/span>hich is likely to continue to use its political machine to<\/span> retain its position.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Despite the EPRDF\u2019s authoritarianism and reluctance to<\/span> <\/span>accept genuine multi-party competition, political positions<\/span> and parties have proliferated in recent years. This <\/span>process, however, is not driven by democratisation or the<\/span> inclusion of opposition parties in representative institutions. Rather it is the result of a continuous polarisation of national politics that has sharpened tensions between <\/span>and within parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s.<\/span> The EPRDF\u2019s ethnic federalism has not dampened <\/span>conflict, but rather increased competition among groups that<\/span> vie over land and natural resources, as well as administrative boundaries and government budgets.<\/span><\/p>\n Furthermore, ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the \u201c<\/span>national question\u201d. The EPRDF\u2019s ethnic policy has empowered<\/span> some groups but has not been accompanied <\/span>by dialogue and reconciliation. For Amhara and national<\/span> <\/span>elites, ethnic federalism impedes a strong, unitary nation-<\/span>state. For ethno-national rebel groups like the ONLF <\/span>(Ogaden National Liberation Front; Somalis in the Oga\u001f<\/span>den) and OLF (Oromo Liberation Front; the Oromo), <\/span>ethnic federalism remains artificial. While the concept has<\/span> failed to accommodate <\/span>grievances, it has powerfully<\/span> promoted ethnic self-awareness among all groups. <\/span>The international community has ignored or downplayed<\/span> <\/span>all these problems. Some donors appear to consider <\/span>food s<\/span>ecurity more important than democracy in Ethiopia, but<\/span> <\/span>they neglect the increased ethnic awareness and tensions<\/span> <\/span>created by the regionalisation policy and their potentially<\/span> explosive consequences. <\/span><\/p>\n Nairobi\/Brussels, 4 September 2009<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [flagallery gid=19 name=”Gallery”] Ethiopia’s known over 80 Ethnio linguistic \u00a0distribution and the existing \u00a0over 200 dialects \u00a0are living \u00a0sources of Woyane’s plan of Balkanization. And \u00a0its means of \u00a0legitimacy \u00a0in power for years to come. Prof. Muse International Crisis Group visit www.crisisgroup.org Africa Report N\u00b0153 4 September 2009 ETHIOPIA: ETHNIC FEDERALISM AND ITS DISCONTENTS Executive […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99,54],"tags":[4084,3680],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/54"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/p>\n
[flagallery gid=19 name=”Gallery”]<\/h1>\n
\n
International Crisis Group<\/h1>\n
\nETHIOPIA: ETHNIC <\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n
FEDERALISM<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n
AND ITS DISCONTENTS<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/span><\/p>\n