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{"id":6899,"date":"2010-09-23T07:43:13","date_gmt":"2010-09-23T05:43:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/?p=6899"},"modified":"2013-07-25T10:15:10","modified_gmt":"2013-07-25T08:15:10","slug":"eritrean-authoritarianism-is-hemorrhaging-its-legitimacy-critical-reading-of-icgs-report-by-muse-tegegne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ethiopianism.net\/6899\/eritrean-authoritarianism-is-hemorrhaging-its-legitimacy-critical-reading-of-icgs-report-by-muse-tegegne\/","title":{"rendered":"“Eritrean authoritarianism is Hemorrhaging its legitimacy”, Critical reading of ICG’s Report by Muse Tegegne, Prof"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Elusive Peace of Fr\u00e8res Enemie <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\ufeffThe recent ICG group\u00a0analysis about \u00a0Eritrea \u00a0 has been based on sets of\u00a0 journalistic\u00a0\u00a0i<\/em><\/strong>deological premises<\/em> which concluded that ; \u00a0 \u201c\u00a0Authoritarianism \u00a0is Hemorrhaging Eritrean legitimacy of the state and \u00a0leading to become a fallen state\u201c \u00a0from \u00a0being a \u00a0 Siege state<\/em>.” \u00a0The same\u00a0analysis\u00a0is fully applicable to the Ethiopian regime led by Asmara\u2019s boy\u00a0 \u00a0 Melese Zenawie. \u00a0ICG’s \u00a0 \u00a0stated objective on\u00a0writing\u00a0the Report N\u00b0\u00a0163 of 21 Sep 2010 is\u00a0supposedly<\/p>\n

\u201cTo<\/strong> <\/em>prevent Eritrea from becoming the Horn of Africa\u2019s next failed state \u201c. <\/em>This is Report in contradiction with different international analysis given\u00a0to the definition of failed state to this day. Furthermore, \u00a0 the report failed to give the \u00a0 definition\u00a0and\u00a0deference\u00a0between failed and siege states. \u00a0It rather enumerated historical chronology of events than defining the dynamics of a\u00a0failed or regime in siege. \u00a0The paper lucks a conceptual and methodological frame work or a research approach to a failed state.<\/p>\n

If we take the 2009 failed state index according to Foreign Policy, Eritrea \u00a0stood\u00a036th 20 point better than <\/sup>Ethiopia on the 16th place \u00a0among 177 countries of the world failed state index, that simply means Ethiopia is worst than Eritrea. This analysis has given detailed parameters that defined failed states. While \u00a0 the ICG Report did not even defined what a state in siege means in order to demonstrate Eritrean domestically\u00a0aggravated\u00a0siege. The Fund for peace defined\u00a0Failed\u00a0sates based on the\u00a0following\u00a0indicators:-<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
The Twelve Indicators according to <\/span><\/strong>THE FUND FOR PEACE are <\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Click on an indicator to see some examples of measures that may be included in the analysis of that indicator. These are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. You can add more measures, as appropriate.\u00a0
\n<\/strong>
\n Social Indicators<\/span><\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-1.\u00a0 Mounting Demographic Pressures
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-2.\u00a0 Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating\u00a0
\n<\/strong> Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-3.\u00a0 Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-4.\u00a0 Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/span> Economic Indicators<\/span><\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-5.\u00a0 Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-6.\u00a0 Sharp and\/or Severe Economic Decline
\n<\/strong>
\n Political Indicators<\/span><\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-7.\u00a0 Criminalization and\/or Delegitimization of the State
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-8.\u00a0 Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-9.\u00a0 Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread\u00a0
\n<\/strong> Violation of Human Rights
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a “State Within a State”
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
\n<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span> I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nCountry<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-1<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-2<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-3<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-4<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-5<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-7<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-8<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-9<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-10<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-11<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nI-12<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nTotal<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSomalia<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n114.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nZimbabwe<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n114.0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSudan<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n112.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nChad<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n112.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDem. Rep. of the Congo<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n108.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nIraq<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n108.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nAfghanistan<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n10.0<\/span><\/td>\n108.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nCentral African Republic<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n5.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n105.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nGuinea<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n104.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPakistan<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n6.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n104.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nIvory Coast<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n102.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nHaiti<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n5.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n101.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nBurma<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n101.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nKenya<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n101.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNigeria<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n5.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n99.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nEthiopia<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n98.9<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNorth Korea<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n5.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n98.3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nYemen<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n98.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nBangladesh<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n98.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nEast Timor<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n5.7<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n9.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n97.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nUganda<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n96.9<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSri Lanka<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n9.8<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n96.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNiger<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n7.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n96.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nBurundi<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n95.7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNepal<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n95.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nCameroon<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.1<\/span><\/td>\n95.3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nGuinea-Bissau<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n5.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.1<\/span><\/td>\n94.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMalawi<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.3<\/span><\/td>\n6.3<\/span><\/td>\n5.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n5.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n93.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLebanon<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n6.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n6.2<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n93.5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nRepublic of Congo<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n7.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.1<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n93.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nUzbekistan<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n5.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.2<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n92.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSierra Leone<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n92.1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nGeorgia<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n6.4<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.5<\/span><\/td>\n91.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLiberia<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n6.7<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n91.8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nBurkina Faso<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.1<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/td>\n9.0<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.0<\/span><\/td>\n91.3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nEritrea<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n5.8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.9<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.7<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n90.3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nTajikistan<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n8.2<\/span><\/td>\n6.4<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.3<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n7.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.4<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n90.3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nIran<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.5<\/span><\/td>\n7.6<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n7.4<\/span><\/td>\n5.5<\/span><\/td>\n8.3<\/span><\/td>\n6.0<\/span><\/td>\n8.9<\/span><\/td>\n8.6<\/span><\/td>\n9.1<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n90.0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The ICG report further accused the Ethiopian regime as a responsible and not Eritrea for the Somalian crisis as a traditional enemy\u00a0contradicting\u00a0to the recent UN sanction. \u00a0ICG recognized Eritrean support for the proxy warriors of the region from Somalia up unto Darfur passing by Ethiopia. The Report in term failed to make the real comparison between the two failed states since both countries are preparing proxies \u00a0 against each other and by\u00a0extension\u00a0in Somalia. They preferred to fight via proxy in Somalia than in Bademe, Asmara, and Mekele etc… The UN sanction would have been imposed on both\u00a0failed\u00a0sates of the Horn of\u00a0Africa not only Eritrea. Since both uses Somalia as their battle ground for proxy wars.<\/p>\n

ICG affirmed that the recent Gold Bonanza of Eritrea will strengthen her 20 years radical line of action in\u00a0domestic\u00a0and regional polices. I think we have to wait rather than making a precipitated prediction, since “one who\u00a0laughs\u00a0last laughs\u00a0the best,” when it comes to the Horn of Africa. It is expected a full\u00a0reversement<\/em> <\/span>of relation in the region even between Addis and Asmara in the very short foreseeable future. Since it is very easy to make peace\u00a0with once friend today\u2019s enemy<\/em> <\/em>rather than acquire a new one in the complex socio political situation of the Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n

The International Crisis Group (ICG) in its Report\u00a0N\u00b0153,\u00a04 Sep 2009 has well demonstrated \u00a0 the Ethiopian regime’s Ethnic Federalism and its\u00a0decentralized state. Its Report N\u00b0141 of 17 Jun 2008 was pertinence to the point by demonstrating the fragile peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia \u00a0 with a risk to a new confrontation. \u00a0The report further affirmed that their No Peace No War situation \u00a0is a \u00a0major source of instability \u00a0for \u00a0Somalia as demonstrated \u00a0with that of \u00a0Ethiopia\u2019s refusal to accept virtual demarcation, \u00a0and affirming\u00a0 that \u00a0\u00a0Asmara\u2019s unilateral implantation \u00a0 \u00a0would \u00a0shatter \u00a0the status quo. \u00a0 This last assessment\u00a0was proved wrong; despite to the ICG\u2019s 2 years old report the conflict did not spark \u00a0\u00a0Scaramouch\u00a0leading to war to this day.<\/p>\n

We think that ICG’s in the\u00a0future\u00a0has to make an objective report without making impartiality between\u00a0the Horn of Africa’s belligerent failed states. \u00a0These failed states of the Horn act like they have a hidden red\u00a0telephone\u00a0between the two discussing the arts and the techniques how to\u00a0maintain\u00a0each other in their respective power via proxy war in Somalia. IF a new public\u00a0dialog between the two\u00a0is struck, the\u00a0next\u00a0day the Somali proxy war will end. They are the\u00a0instigator\u00a0of the 20 years of crisis one way or another, Somalia has been a stateless since they came to power almost two decades ago.\u00a0When you see Eritrean leaders you have seen Ethiopian leaders, since they are the opposite faces of the same coin.<\/p>\n

Any\u00a0foreseeable\u00a0 \u00a0analyses to make a\u00a0reasonable\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0prediction \u00a0about \u00a0 these two failed states is not an easy task\u00a0\u00a0 using \u00a0traditional \u00a0simplistic \u00a0journalistic affirmations, \u00a0which are generally \u00a0hasty\u00a0\u00a0and full of \u00a0highlight\u00a0 and \u00a0short of \u00a0any substance. And it is not that simple to grasp or understand the internal dynamics of the horn of Africa’s politics to engage oneself to \u00a0 make any reasonable futuristic\u00a0prediction.<\/p>\n

Please\u00a0read\u00a0the\u00a0different\u00a0Report on Eritrea and Ethiopia and make your comment directly\u00a0to the group.<\/p>\n

Prof. Muse Tegegne<\/p>\n

Overview<\/a>|\u00a0Full PDF report<\/a> |<\/h1>\n

Is Eritrean policy shift just \u201ctactical\u201d?<\/a><\/h2>\n\n

Eritrea: The Siege State<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To prevent Eritrea from becoming the Horn of Africa\u2019s next failed state, the international community must engage more with the country.<\/p>\n

Eritrea: The Siege State<\/em> <\/a>, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, analyses the fragile political and economic situation following the devastating war with Ethiopia (1998-2000). Just a decade ago, Eritrea might reasonably have been described as challenged but stable. Today it is under severe stress, if not yet in full-blown crisis. While not likely to undergo dramatic upheaval in the near future, it is weakening steadily. Its economy is in free fall, poverty is rife, and the authoritarian political system is haemorrhaging its legitimacy<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs Eritrea continues on this trajectory, its current economic and political problems are only going to deepen\u201d, says Andrew Stroehlein, Crisis Group\u2019s Director of Communications. \u201cWhile there is no open protest at the moment, the government cannot take this for granted over the long term. Change is really only a matter of time\u201d.<\/p>\n

The militarism and authoritarianism which now define Eritrea\u2019s political culture have their roots in the region\u2019s violent history. The 30-year war for independence \u2013 achieved in 1991 \u2013 was part of a network of conflicts which devastated north-east Africa. The real significance of that legacy has only become clear in the last decade, as President Isaias Afwerki and a small cohort of ex-fighters have strengthened their grip on power, while suppressing social freedoms in favour of an agenda centred on an obedient national unity and the notion that Eritrea is surrounded by enemies.<\/p>\n

Eritrea has fought in recent years, directly or indirectly, with Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti and Sudan and involved itself in various ways in the conflicts in eastern Sudan, Darfur and Somalia. Relations with Ethiopia in particular remain extremely tense, in large part because Ethiopia has failed to abide by its Algiers Peace Agreement commitment to accept binding arbitration on their disputed border. (The boundary commission ruled that the town of Badme \u2013 the original flashpoint of the war \u2013 was in Eritrea.) The UN Security Council\u2019s failure to compel compliance reinforced the sense in Asmara that the international community is inherently hostile. While Eritrea asserts that it is pursuing legitimate national security interests, its aggressive approach and abrasive tone have left it increasingly isolated.<\/p>\n

The army has been the key stabilising force, but it is becoming less stable, riddled with corruption and increasingly weak. National service \u2013 originally intended to build the country \u2013 could well prove one of the catalysts for the regime\u2019s eventual collapse. Some form of demobilisation is required but cannot happen overnight, as society and the economy are incapable of immediately absorbing tens of thousand former soldiers. A holistic approach is urgently needed and requires outside help. Instead of pushing the regime into a corner, the international community should engage with Eritrea on the basis of a greater understanding about the country\u2019s past and current grievances. This might well remove one of the regime\u2019s key rationales and ultimately empower more reform-minded and outward-looking elements within the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) and wider society.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is inadequate and unhelpful simply to portray Eritrea as the regional spoiler\u201d, says Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, Crisis Group\u2019s acting Africa Program Director. \u201cIt is also the product of the political environment of the Horn as a whole. Ultimately, everything is interconnected, and a more comprehensive, integrated approach is needed by the international community to treat the severe problems confronting Eritrea and the region\u201d.<\/p>\n