Archives for;

Somalia divides the West

Mandera the war for Somalian repartition between Ethiopia and Kenya

The recent armed clash between Ethiopian, Kenyan and Somali resistance fighters in the regional strategically city of Mandera has rekindled the long waited regional war of the horn Africa. It is a Somali city located at the cross road between the three countries:  Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. Mandera was a central meeting point for all   Ogadeans before the Scramble for Africa in 1880’s that divide them with artificial boarders. This the time bomb set by colonial powers that  divided  people of the region by artificial imaginary lines, thus separating  families of the same clan.


When we talk about the Ogaden region of Ethiopia we have tenancy to forget the name Ogaden given to the region is a tribal name inside Somali populated region of Ethiopia. Today the whole region is named Somali region by the Ethiopian dictator Melese Zenawie since 1991.  This is conspiracy against the Somalis by creating a condition similar to Balkans, where there is a country Macedonia and a region with the same name inside Greek. While there is already country called Somalia there is need to create another Somalia. The main purpose to name such ethnical region is to accelerate the dismemberment of Somalia itself.  Another point to be raised it is not only in Ethiopia that Ogaden exists, but also in Kenya- the western Somali populated region of Kenya is also inhabited with same tribes of Ogadeni.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DpZa9LoV6qWo img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/pZa9LoV6qWo/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DtQW6tSU7h2g img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/tQW6tSU7h2g/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

On the 24th of February the Ethiopian mechanized forces supporting the newly trained Somali mercenaries are fighting the Somali insurgents not far from the border town of Mandera supported with heavy weapons.  Melese Zenawie government has been involvement in Somali internal affairs since his accession to power in Ethiopia. He had officially started in its invasion of Somali in 2006 which he left after shameful defeat replacing himself with Burundi and Ugandan troops with the umbrella of the African Unity peace keepers. Both countries running UN resolved eternal ethnic rivalry and armed insurgency in their own land.   The Melese Zenawie mercenary troops have just been caught in Tripoli and Bengasi supporting the falling killer of Libya and Cyrenaica, Mohammed Gaddafi.

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DfOamz0GR4ww img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/fOamz0GR4ww/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

—————

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3De9tjGyPyzIs img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/e9tjGyPyzIs/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DfBtNVUl5meo img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/fBtNVUl5meo/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

The Ethiopian troops are firing missiles to ensure the newly trained Somali mercenary troops are successfully deployed in Somalia to destabilize the already fragile   country in the name of fighting “Islam extremism.” It is just a pretext to keep himself in power like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Ben Ali of Tunisia. Melese Zenawie is trying to divert the world attention to the newly open conflict on the cross road city of Mandera.

The Ethiopian dictatorial regime of Melese Zenawie has been training 2,000 Somali mercenaries since late 2009 to accomplish the unfinished job of Balkanizing Somalia to different factions. Melese has agreed to let Juba land to pass in the hands of Kenya, while unsuccessfully attempted to control Mogadishu. Since the fall of the central state of Somalia in 1989, Somaliland and Putland have already defacto declared their independence.

The border fighting for the reparation of Somalia between Kenya and Ethiopia has spilled over to the Kenyan town of Mender last Thursday. The tension was high in Mandera County since Wednesday morning as fears of spill-over of the fighting grip residents of Mandera town.

The fist bomb exploded at the Mandera District hospital on Thursday as heavy fighting continued between the different faction to control the border key town between Somalia rebels fighting against Ethiopian troops and their mercenaries with the support of Kenya fighting to control her Ogadeni region of Western territories. Local reporters have seen wounded Kenyans are rushed to be treated for bullet wounds while the authorities are denying their involvement in the conflict to control Somalia.

Kenya has increased its contingent by moving an army battalion around Mandera Town.

The conflict has reached the Kenyan border towns stretching to Kilima Fisi up to Hulugo Somalia Juba land crossing point near Lamu. These are the intersectional crossing to between the three borderline countries.

Beside the regular army Kenya just deployed security team comprising Kenya Army’s Rangers and Special Forces detachments, as well as the General Service Unit and Administration Police.

Two severely and four other Kenyan soldiers were also wounded.  While Kenya like Ethiopia has trained its Somalis mercenaries, it won’t be long before the conflict spill over to Kenyan Somali region like Ogaden of Ethiopia.

 

According to the Kenyan minimizing news media:-

“One woman has been reported dead at Border Point One and 10 casualties are being treated at Mandera District Hospital,” Kenya Red Cross Secretary General Abbas Gullet said in a statement.

He said the fighting that started at about 10am on Friday did not spare the Red Cross offices where several gun shots were fired, but no casualty was reported.

“Several gunshots flying in the air across the border have hit the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) offices in Mandera, where six members of staff are holed up, like many other residents of Mandera town,” Mr Gullet said.

“The gunshots have rocked the town, keeping residents and refugees indoors,” he said.

The Society’s Spokesman Titus Mung’ou said the situation had put the lives of humanitarian workers and other residents of Mandera town in grave danger.

“We have reported this latest incident to the Government and hope the KRCS offices, which have a Red Cross emblem flag hoisted on the rooftop, will be protected,” he said.

The Red Cross emblem is a protected symbol, under the Geneva Conventions, and all warring parties are required to respect it, he added.

“Hundreds of refugees are now scattered on the Kenyan side of the border, as it is risky to gather in camps until fighting ceases,” he said.

Hundreds of families began fleeing Mandera town Friday following the intense fighting that has been going on at the Kenya-Somalia border since Wednesday.

Reports from Mandera indicate that schools, government offices and hospitals had been shut for stray ammunition that has been hammering the border town.

A councilor who spoke to Capital News from Mandera said although no physical attacks had occurred in the town, residents were worried of the bullets that “are being fired from various directions whenever the troops are fighting the militiamen.”

On Thursday morning, eight people were struck by bullets fired by militia men who have been fighting AU troops on the Somalia side.

“It is scaring, you cannot know when a bullet will land near you and that is why people are running for safety,” the councilor who only identified himself as Ahmed said.

“Some houses have gone up in flames since morning and we don’t know who are burning them but we highly suspect it has something to do with what is going on at the border,” Ahmed added.

He said Mandera town remained deserted for the better part of Friday and only military and police trucks were seen parked strategically with heavily armed officers.

“People are running towards remote areas far away from Mandera, we don’t want to become victims,” he added “This place now is inhabitable, there are heavy gunfire renting the air every after a couple of hours.

The situation was made worse when a bomb was hurled at the Mandera district hospital but no one was hurt because it landed on an open field.

North Eastern Provincial Commissioner Joseph ole Serian told Capital News that the bomb could have caused a major disaster “were it not that it landed on an open field.”

“The hospital covers a large area, we are lucky it landed on an open ground, it could have been disastrous,” ole Serian said on telephone from where he was coordinating security.

Some 14 African Union soldiers flown from Mogadishu were still admitted to hospitals in Mombasa where they have been receiving treatment for bullet wounds since Thursday.

Military Spokesman Bogita Ongeri told Capital News they had enhanced security at the border towns to stop  Al-Shabaab fighters from liberating from controlling western Kenya.

————–

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DFTmU3tRf9yw img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/FTmU3tRf9yw/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

———————–

 

The Kenyan soldiers fought the Somali resistance fighters who had tried to stop them from controlling the Somali region of Kenya seven were injured.

The best and the lasting solution for the region is  non ignorance in the internal affair of Somalis by the different  neighboring counties  like Ethiopia and Kenya in order not further  radicalize the situation.

The strategic city of Mandera would be the Waterloo of Melese Zenawie and the Kenyan election killers who are trying to divert the internal situation to this undue conflict by calling for   intervention the  embattled western  forces  in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DJLk0HJTziaI img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/JLk0HJTziaI/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DG2e8MWaWt4Q img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/G2e8MWaWt4Q/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=highautostart=false /]

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3D_suf0Sd1a60 img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/_suf0Sd1a60/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=340 height=260 dock=true controlbar=over bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

Related Post

Melese’s plan for Kenya and Ethiopia ought to annex and divide Somalia …

Proxy Warriors of of the Horn of Africa battling with words at the UN to win allies ? Muse Tegegne, Prof.

The month of September is a special month in the history of the Horn of Africa. It is the month of Ethiopian & Eritrean Orthodox New Year falling the same day as that of 9/11 terrorist attack 9 years ago in New York. The 1st of September is  a memorial day in  Eritrea, the day the struggle of liberation started.  This day is commemorated every years in Asmara the capital of the ex Italian colony once federated later province of Ethiopia, which seceded in 1991 and became Independence in 1993, with the full support of the present regime of Ethiopia. Eritrea is a pure creation of the scramble for Africa.  The  Eritrean legacy of  colonization has continued to this day starting a full flagged war with Ethiopia 7 years after its  independence. The leaders of Eritrea and Ethiopia were once comrades in struggle against the Marxist regime of Addis Ababa, today they are  at least publically sworn enemy.   The war exploded in 1998 between the two frères-enemies up until 2002, when Cessez-le-feu was established by the intervention of the UN , costing over 200000 lives.  Further more, the two dictatorial regimes continue their proxy war and war of words by organizing proxy armed movements in each other soil.  They even further destabilized the region by employing their proxies in Somalia. Thus, Somalia became the center of international terrorism and piracy sponsored by Al Qaida.  The Ethiopian dictator dragged in over 5000 African forces to Somalia after unsuccessful occupation of the country for two years starting 2006. In 2009 Ethiopian regime pressured the AU at its siege in Ethiopia  to impose sanction against Eritrea by the UN.  Eritrea in return  continues supporting the opposition groups in Somali and Ethiopia in spite of the UN sanction to this day.

The UN sanction N° Resolution 1907 (2009) Stipulates Arms Embargo, Travel Restrictions, Asset Freezes

“Cease arming, training and equipping armed groups and their members including al-Shabab”

Eritrea called the sanction as”ludicrous punitive measures” and warned that their imposition risked “engulfing the region in to another cycle of conflict as it may encourage Ethiopia to contemplate reckless military adventures”.

Both the representative of Eritrea and Ethiopia used the opportunity of the United Nations General Debate to settle some scores trying to influence some member states to join their proxy wars in Somalia in the pretext of border wars. It is ridiculous after agreeing in major principle as great as the Independence of Eritrea to engage to a whole out  war  for a piece of barn land. As we all know the truth of the mater lies not on that piece of land. Let us here it from the Eritrean Foreign Minster:-

“While the United Nations grapples with Sudan and Somalia, it continues to ignore the grave consequences of Ethiopia’s continued occupation of sovereign Eritrean territory, eight years after the ruling of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC), and three years after the Commission ended its work by depositing in the United Nations the demarcated boundary between the two countries. Ethiopia’s illegal occupation and the United Nations’ silence, which mean the continuation of the conflict, is exacting a heavy price on the peoples of Eritrea and Ethiopia and complicating the regional situation. I wish to remind the United Nations that Eritrea awaits responsible and urgent action to end Ethiopia’s violation of international law and its threat to regional peace and security.”

Eritrean Foreign Minster

The story as told by the Ethiopian Foreign Minster goes the following wise

When we talk about security in the Horn of Africa Region…we cannot avoid raising our concern once again about the destructive role the Government of Eritrea has continued to play since independence.  It is an open secret that the Eritrean Government has for some time now been actively playing the role of the spoiler in the whole tragic situation in Somalia…the Eritrean regime is the principal destabilizer in our sub-region with utter contempt for international law and the norms of international behavior.

Their accusation and counter accusation has been a daily phenomenon since 1998. The truth would be both to stop preparing proxy warriors  and comply with the UN resolutions.

Eritrean response to Ethiopian foreign minster


Ethiopian Delegate On Somalia

Eritrean Delegate

Somali Embattled President today the Proxy of Ethiopia in power in Mogadishu Villa  once a Proxy of  Eritrea against Ethiopia

In the same month of the September the Ethiopian Dictator Melese Zenawie was busy convincing the US academician in Colombia university lying out rightly to the Students of the university:-

Get the Flash Player to see the wordTube Media Player.

The Eritro-Ethiopian proxy war has even engaged diaspora of  the two belligerent countries. Those of Somalia have been recruited by Al Shabab to be used as a suicidal bomb in Mogadishu been recruited from the US and the United Kingdom:-US man faces terror charges for support of Somalia’s Al-Shabab

The following are the classification of the Eritro-Ethiopian Diasporas:-

  1. Those who are Puppet  of the Ethiopian Regime;
  2. Those who are puppet of Eritrean regime;
  3. Those who became international   member of the Eritrean Proxy warriors;
  4. Those who became international   member of the Ethiopian Proxy warriors;
  5. Those  against both Eritrean and Ethiopian regimes;
  6. Those against Eritrean regime not working with the Ethiopian regime;
  7. Those who are against Ethiopian regime not working with the Eritrean  regime;

The most dangerous  are  those caught with trends of  Somalian Syndrome   N° 3 and N°4″.

The N° 1  are for example those  manifesting  in supporting of  Melese Zenawie in his recent Colombia University venue :-

Related Posts

At General Assembly, Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of spoiling peace efforts in Somalia

Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister’s lies exposed at the UN General Assembly

Somali President Urges International Help to Fight Terrorism .

Terror Free Somalia Foundation: Museveni addresses UN general assembly

Is Eritrea becoming a destabilising force?

Somalia TGS’ rift Al Shabab’s domino

Somalia the Kurdistan of Africa was known as Puntland prehistorically by the ancient Egypt.  Since the Scramble of Africa the Somalis have gone through war and unprecedented conflict.   The Somalis are found today in Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Puntland, Somaliland and Somalia.

In the post colonial period the Somalis have been victim of extremism and continue foreign intervention: – the US in 94/95, Ethiopia 2006, and recently they become the center of conflict piracy and instability in the horn of Africa. Most importantly they have been the battle ground for Eritrean and Ethiopian Proxy wars which engulfed the countries of the Great Lakes Uganda and Burundi under sponsored by AU.   A transitional Government has been established under the auspices of the AU and the UN.

The recent rift between the two top leader of the embattled Somalia is about to collapse mostly from the weakness and the    ambivalent   engagement of the AU troops.

The Transitional government of Somali is highly weakened by three principal factures namely:-

Firstly  the  clan politics installed in the colonial past   inside  Somalia,  and  the recent TGS which by the rift between the two rivals in power- Sharif Ahmed, President and   the Premier Sharmarke;

Secondly by a Strong Al Shabab & the Militias advancement supported by the countries of the Red Se cost;

Thirdly by non commitment of the AU member countries to give unconditional support to TGS, and those engaged are half heartedly employed as means to boom the position of the supporting countries strong men’s international stand rather than resolving the Somalian Question Definitively.

All these factors are working indirectly for Al Shabab’s advancement.  The continuous polemic between the two will collapse the AU supported TGS if not resolved internally. TGS could not be able   to control outside the   President’s office residence and the Air port which was targeted by the suicide bombers of Al Shabab few days earlier. The Resent Al Shabab’s   bomb blast at Muna Hotel killed some member of TGS parliament sending shock waves to the AMSOM troops lamenting in Mogadishu. The recent Al-Shabab attack   forced the Ugandan president to send additional troops to help the government in its last battle against Al-Shabab.

The 6000 strong AU peace keeping force did not succeed to subdue the supposedly Al Qaida supported Somalian street fighters. They are indirectly supported by the government of the Red Sea costs who opposes the Ethiopian and AU supported TGS forces on the ground.   Red Sea governments like Yemen, Eritrea and Egypt opposes the definitive secession Somaliland. The newly elected Islamic Unity party is highly advised to take over Mogadishu by these governments which see their interest compromised.  The newly independent Somaliland on the Cost of the Red sea serving as an Ethiopian out let than that of the Traditional Djibouti and Eritrea will weaken their economic and geostrategic interest in long term if the port of Barbara becomes the principal port in the Indian Ocean for the Ethiopian and the newly independent Southern Sudan outlet.

The continues division between the two top leaders  will precipitate the  end of the TGS as we know it,  and will be bring a new change breaking the status quo. The TGS Premier seemingly has assured the support of the Parliament and some countries around the region against President Sharif.

Somalia’s prime minister resigns amid tensions

Get the Flash Player to see the wordTube Media Player.
Get the Flash Player to see the wordTube Media Player.

UN wants transitional government to end squabbling as it warns about insurgents becoming a serious security threat.

The UN says the al-Shabab group is increasingly posing a serious international security threat [Reuters] 14 Sep 2010

The United Nations has warned that Somalia insurgents are posing a serious international security threat and made a renewed appeal to the transitional government to end the civil conflict.

The rise of the al-Shabaab movement has raised concerns among western governments, in addition to the pirates operating out of Somalia ports.

Somalia will be in the spotlight during a debate at the Security Council on Thursday and a top level ministerial meeting on the conflict at the UN General Assembly summit next week.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, said “horrific” suicide bomb attacks by al-Shabaab followers in Uganda in July had shown the growing threat from the al-Qaeda inspired group.

Some 76 people were killed in that attack.

‘Security threat’

“The attacks demonstrated that al-Shabaab remains a serious security threat for Somalia, the sub-region and the wider international community,” Ban said in a report to the Security Council on Monday.

The UN report said the Somali capital’s “already weak health services are struggling to cope with casualties”, citing thousands of reported deaths in Mogadishu this year.

A special envoy for Ban, Augustine Mahiga, an African Union envoy, Boubacar Diarra, and an East African peace envoy, Kipruto Arap Kirwa, were at Mogadishu airport on Thursday to meet Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the head of the transitional government, when a suicide bomber killed five people there.

The three envoys said on Monday the government is in disarray and warned that the divisions were “potentially very damaging” to efforts to end the chaos.

The transitional government is scheduled to end in August 2011, and analysts say it has achieved little so far.

Political battles

Repeated political battles in recent months have seen the president dissolve the cabinet and the parliament speaker resign.

“Somali forces and [AMISOM troops] risk their lives each day to protect the transitional federation institutions and defend the integrity of the peace process,” the three envoys said in a statement released in Nairobi.

“The leaders and politicians need to demonstrate their unity of purpose to show they are working together to restore peace to Somalia.”

Ban sent a similar message highlighting international efforts to promote peace in spite of the “internal disputes” and “political complications”.

The UN chief said the international financial crisis has hit efforts to boost the African peacekeeping force.

“I remind all parties to the conflict that those found responsible for war crimes will face justice,” Ban said.

“In that regard I support the proposal to document the most serious violations committed, as an essential step in the fight against impunity.”

Related

Rift threatens Somali government

Somalia airport comes under attack

Caught between arms and politics

Somaliland ‘s Unity party victory a cause belli for conflict ?

Somaliland ‘s Unity party victory a cause belli for conflict ?  by Prof. Muse Tegegne


National electoral Commission of Somaliland

comments www.ethiopiansim.info

The  June election in Somaliland is victory to democracy in the horn of  Africa compared to the recent election in Ethiopia, Sudan & Burundi.

The National Electoral Commission (NEC) declared  Kulmiye (Unity) party the winner. Kulmiye party received 49.6% of the vote, while the party of president Dahir Rayale Kahin (UDUB party), managed just 33.1 per cent Second opposition party, UCID (Justice and Welfare party) finished third scoring 17.2 per cent of the vote.  The international community want to see change that might bring more respect  and democracy in the  region. The Final result announced Kulimye: 266906 | 49.6% ,UDUB: 178881 | 33.1% UCID: 92439 | 17.2% .

Kulmiye leaders known for their  Pansomlaian  ideology will show more and more unification tendacies and their cross board relation with the   Islamists.  The  June 26, 2010, Presidential elections results was hold to the  July 1 2010 by creating  collusion to the Somalian independent and unification date  in July 1st, 1960. This  will compromise the the long waited international recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.

“The election is a sham and a dictation of anti-Islamic forces.” declared  Al Shebab

Somaliland a former British colony tacked on to Somalia when the latter gained independence from Italy in 1960,and jioned Somlia Itlaian till  It broke away from Somalia in 1991, after the overthrow of Siad Barre.

Egypt and Eritrea has been suspected  as being a   sponsors of the Kulmiye victory in Hagessa and Iran not far away. They  are  will push for Somaliland to tighten controls on international trade, through Berbera, to sustain landlocked Ethiopia. It seems in very near future the Kulmiye and al-Shabaab leadership will push to take over control of the Government of Somalia which will put Somaliland to the confusion of  of Somalian Syndrome.

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DpUo_fv7VZEU img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/pUo_fv7VZEU/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=450 height=253 dock=true controlbar=none bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

SOMALILAND: President-elect forms new Commission to form government thumbnail

President-elect visits president Riyale

President-elect visits president Riyale thumbnail

President-elect Ahmed Mohamed Silaanyo paid a surprise visit to the outgoing President Dahir Riyale Kahin in his office on Sunday morning.

A source close to the new president said the purpose of his visit was to warmly greet and congratulate the outgoing President. It added, the new President was amazed how well Mr Riyale reacted and conceded defeat. Silaanyo was quoted saying: “It’s the sign of a true leader who comes forward and concedes defeat.”

The two also forgave each others for what each said to the other over the years.

Mr Riyale who took office in May 2002, after the death of Mohammed Haji Ibrahim Egal, will be remembered for bringing stability to Somaliland and strengthening democracy in the country despite the many election delays.

[stream provider=youtube flv=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Dw4UhZZQNrw4 img=x:/img.youtube.com/vi/w4UhZZQNrw4/0.jpg embed=false share=false width=450 height=253 dock=true controlbar=none bandwidth=high autostart=false /]

httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8n8_zZZdQA

New group eyes ‘united’ Somalia

Horn, Red Sea Braces for Instability as Somaliland Moves Toward Islamist Reunification With Somalia

– By Gregory R. Copley

The Election Commission of the Republic of Somaliland on July 1, 2010 — as noted, the highly-iconic 50th anniversary date of the original union of the Republic of Somaliland with the former Italian Somaliland to create the Union of Somalia — announced that the pan-Somalist, radical Islamist Kulmiye party candidate, Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, had won the June 26, 2010, Presidential elections.

Kulmiye — with major support from a broadly-based network of Islamists throughout the region, a range of pan-Somalists and southern Somalian clans, several regional governments, and at least one major Western front organization — prepared a broad campaign for which the UDUP Government under Pres. Dahir Riyale Kahin, although fully warned, were totally unprepared. Kulmiye had stage-managed significant elements of the Election Commission, and the media, and had prepared a round of post-election back-up plans which included adding prepared, loaded ballot boxes, and a campaign of street protests in the event that it looked as though all other steps failed and in the event that the Government had, in fact, taken strong pre-emptive steps to curtail Kulmiye’s creative electioneering.

Kulmiye leaders and other pan-Somalists and Islamists with who they were working had been noting that July 1, 2010, would be the symbolic date of the beginning of the reunification of the two Somalilands. That the Election Commission, which had been strongly influenced by payments from foreign sources (as GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs had noted earlier), withheld announcement of the results of the June 26, 2010, Presidential elections until the iconic date of July 1, as if confirming the reports of collusion with the pan-Somalists.

The ramifications of the event will gradually become apparent, quite apart from short-term impact on Somaliland’s hitherto stable society. Domestically, shari’a law will become dominant, and cooperation with jihadist groups, such as al-Shabaab, will become routine. Somaliland, for even as long as it continues to exist as an entity, will cease meaningful cooperation with the West on counter-terrorism and counter-piracy issues.

The key sponsors of the Kulmiye take-over, particularly Egypt and Eritrea, and possibly Iran, will push for Somaliland to tighten controls on international trade, through Berbera, to sustain landlocked Ethiopia. Clearly, the Kulmiye and al-Shabaab leadership will also push to take over control of the Government of Somalia, such as it is, within any new de facto or de jure reunion of the two Somalilands.

One very direct result will be to add pressure on the Meles Zenawi Government in Ethiopia, forcing it to rely more, once again, on Djibouti as the entrepot for Ethiopian trade. This will add significantly to Ethiopia’s costs, given Djibouti’s history of exploiting its position in this trade in the past. This accords with Egypt’s wishes to weaken Ethiopia, which controls the headwaters of the Blue Nile, the major source of water for Egypt. Egypt’s position of hostility to upstream riparian states on the Blue and White Niles, and Egypt’s refusal, this year, to come to an agreement on Nile water usage with other riparian states.

Egypt’s challenge to Ethiopia, as the principal water source for the Nile, may, however trigger a backlash, and actually cause Ethiopia to attempt to dam or divert Nile waters for energy and agricultural purposes, literally leading to a reduction in flow to Sudan and Egypt. The Egyptian Government has noted in the past that any attempts to deny Egypt the water to which it feels it has a legal right — in contradistinction to inter-state legal precedent on the topic — would represent casus belli: cause for war. The Egyptian Government has put interference with Nile waters ahead of any other possible cause for war.

FREE Breaking Investment & Geopolitical Intelligence – Previously only available to Governments, Intelligence Agencies & selected Hedge Funds. Click here for more information on our Free Weekly Intelligence Report

Eritrea, meanwhile, still harbors hopes that Ethiopia would be forced to an accommodation with Eritrea to use the ports which Eritrea assumed from Ethiopia when Eritrean independence was willingly given by Addis Ababa — at the express command of Prime Minister Meles — in 1993. This is, perhaps, still the major point of contention which Ethiopians have against Prime Minister Meles: not just that he gave Eritrea, historically always a part of the Ethiopian Empire, its independence, but that he included in that “give away” before he even became an elected head-of-government coastal areas and ports of Ethiopia which had never been part of the Eritrean province. That move left Ethiopia land-locked and dependent on Eritrea for port access, a move which Eritrea exploited so ruthlessly — demanding that Ethiopia receive untradeable Eritrean currency for all of its exports — that a break in relations came, precipitating the Ethiopian-Eritrean wars.

Ethiopia subsequently developed port access through Djibouti, and then Berbera. Thus the collapse of the alliance with Somaliland, as a result of the July 1, 2010, announcement of a new President there, is of profound concern for Addis Ababa. The Pan-Somalists and al-Shabaab and others involved in the change in Somaliland are themselves openly and strenuously hostile to Ethiopia, which had militarily supported the Somaliland Government and had also put troops into Somalia — including into the Somalian capital (and former capital of Italian Somaliland), Mogadishu, to fight the Islamists, including al-Shabaab.

It is highly significant that the Italian Government had supported the pan-Somalists based on historical feelings of identity with the onetime Italian Somaliland, despite the reality that this has contributed significantly to the continued instability in the Horn. Similarly, the Italian Government has sustained its profound support for Eritrea against Ethiopia, once again because of “historical solidarity” with Eritrea, which it had briefly colonized, before being defeated on two occasions in Ethiopia (1893, at the Battle of Adwa, the most significant defeat of a Western power in Africa; and in 1941). What is significant is that the Italian Government has gained nothing of strategic value for this emotional attachment, but has contributed significantly to the instability of the Horn of Africa.

It is now possible that the Eritrea-Ethiopia relations will undergo a further increase in tensions. Eritrea put in substantial guerilla forces, and support for dissidents in Ethiopia, in the run-up to the June parliamentary elections which returned Prime Minister Meles’ coalition to power.

It would be unsurprising if direct hostilities broke out again between Ethiopia and Eritrea within a year. Indeed, this may be the key to Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afewerke retaining power in his state, despite the continuing decline in the state’s economic fortunes and the increasing repression in his state.

Significantly, the transforming situation marked by the July 1, 2010, collapse of Somaliland’s moderate, pro-Western Government will be to ensure greater access by international jihadist and terrorist groups to the Horn of Africa; greater difficulty for external states to influence and reduce the incidence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean regions around the Horn; a greater ability for groups supported by Iran to support cross Bab el-Mandeb operations against the Yemeni Government (and supporting anti-Sana’a forces based in the former South Yemen regions); as well as stimulating the prospect for Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict and possibly initiating Ethiopian-Egyptian military tensions.

Overall, the move to topple the moderate Government in Hargeisa, the Somaliland capital, provides a safe-haven for a wide range of activities by Islamists, jihadists, and other non-governmental actors from bases in the Horn. These will play into hostilities within the Arabian Peninsula as a whole, and will interact, almost certainly, with anti-state players in Pakistan. In all of this, Iran has historically played a key rôle in Somalia, and this will expand.

The Iran-Sudan-Egypt Connection

By Spring 2010, Tehran and its allies were increasingly worried about their strategic posture at the Red Sea as a result of the growing militant-separatist sentiments in southern Sudan. The likely outbreak of a civil war in Sudan would deprive Iran and jihadists the use of Sudan’s Red Sea ports as the base from which to block the Red Sea in case of a major confrontation with the US. The series of Israeli clandestine, air, and naval strikes against convoys and ships in northern Sudan carrying weaponry to the HAMAS in Gaza (to be delivered via Egypt and the Sinai) only added to the Iranian sense of vulnerability.

In mid-April 2010, Sudan held the first ostensibly free elections in 24 years. According to the official results, President Omar al-Bashir and his ruling National Congress Party (NCP) won 68.24 percent of the votes. Far more significant, however, was the election of Salva Kiir Mayardit with an overwhelming majority of 92.99 percent to the post of both the First Vice President of the Republic of Sudan and the post of president of Sudan’s southern region. Kiir was the candidate of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) which advocates the secession of the south in order to establish an independent state in the upcoming referendum now scheduled for January 2011. The referendum is the final step in the implementation of the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the SPLM and Khartoum.

However, Khartoum has already vowed to prevent the dismemberment of Sudan — particularly given the vast oil reserves in the south (particularly the disputed Abyei region) — and already manipulated the 2008 census results to reduce the number of eligible black voters in the south and bloat the number of Arab voters in the north. This created growing tension and fear of the resumption of the vicious civil war.

Indeed, starting 2008, the SPLM began using oil revenues in order to purchase heavy weapons — including tanks, artillery and rockets — in the former Soviet Union and ship them, via Kenyan ports, to Sudan in preparation for the anticipated resumption of fighting. The extent of the procurement efforts of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) was revealed in September when Somali pirates working for Sudanese intelligence hijacked a Ukrainian cargo ship carrying 33 T-72 tanks and crates of small arms. The ship later released after Kiev showed proper end-user documents identifying Kenya as the owner of the weapons and the pirates received a $3.2-million ransom. The flow of weapons has markedly intensified since Spring 2009. Some of these weapons were already used in the pre-election clashes in March 2010.

In early Summer 2010, the SPLA drafted plans to train pilots and acquire combat aircraft and helicopters. “We want to transform SPLA from a guerilla force into a veritable military,” SPLA spokesman Maj.-Gen. Dame Koala said. Khartoum immediately warned that the establishment of an air force or navy in the south would violate the CPA. But SPLM leaders reiterated their commitment to establishing a proper military using oil revenues.

In May 2010, SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum warned in an interview with the Saudi-owned Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the establishment of an Islamic Republic in Sudan, as advocated by Bashir in the aftermath of the April elections, would lead to the break-up of the country. “If the National Congress Party insists on implementing a program for building the Islamic Republic then southerners will have no choice but to vote for secession. If the National Congress Party insists on imposing its policies of oppression and racial discrimination then southerners must secede, and if the National Congress Party continues to plunder the wealth of the south and unjustly divide oil revenues in the absence of transparency, then southerners will have to break free from those tyrants,” Amum warned.

In early June 2010, Amum raised the ante in another interview with Al-Sharq al-Awsat in which he asserted that unification was unlikely under current conditions. “In the shadow of the National Economic Salvation regime, and its Islamic project, there is no solution, or even a drop of hope or Sudanese unity. … There is no possibility or even the slightest chance to achieve Sudanese unity unless the NCP reoccupied the South and takes control of it through military force. This would be a bloody step, and this would not represent unification but occupation.” Amum confirmed that Kiir is actively preparing to form a government of the South in their capital Juba. All the best SPLM cadres were transferred to Juba and only expandable SPLM officials were sent to fill CPA-mandated positions in the Khartoum Government.

Amum warned that the suggested postponement of the referendum would restart the civil war. “Any side that calls for postponement would, in other words, be calling for the Sudanese people to return to fighting. This would be a dangerous and irresponsible action to take.” Although the South prefers to secede peacefully, Juba is cognizant that war is all but inevitable. Amum stated that “if there is no other choice but war, we will enter it [war]. The Sudanese People’s Liberation Army is capable of solving these problems and restoring security,” Amum stressed, “it is one of the largest armies in the region, and it has fought long wars, has excellent combat experience and is currently being transformed into a regular army.”

As is the case of Somaliland, Egypt and Eritrea lead calls for the southern Sudanese referendum on self-determination to be postponed.

Possible Outcomes

In summary, coupled with the linked developments in Sudan, and as a result of the pivotal change in Hargeisa on July 1, 2010, the following developments should be expected, at the very least:

1. Increased Iranian support and capability for African, Arabian Peninsula, and Pakistani jihadist and terrorist activities, including support for the “Islamic Republic of Eastern Arabia”, and direct actions aimed at overthrowing the present Yemen Government. This will all ultimately impact on trade costs and energy costs;

2. Increased piracy activities out of Somalian Puntland, with less ability for external powers to intervene or influence;

3. Significant revival of Eritrean-Ethiopian tensions, leading to the increased prospect for renewed conventional war;

4. Significant increase in Ethiopia-Egypt tensions, with a number of possible outcomes;

5. Spread of Somalia-style warlordism into Somaliland, and a new set of competitions for power over the entire Somalian entity, with unforeseeable results, other than that the competition will be protracted and indecisive. The likelihood will be that the African Union and United Nations will be called on, again, to provide peacekeeping forces for Somalia, with significant cost in capital and lives for the international community;

6. Potential for increased insurgency aimed at overthrowing the Djibouti Government of Pres. Ismail Omar Guelleh (bearing in mind that “French Somaliland”, now Djibouti, is one of the stars in the pan-Somalists pantheon) (and bearing in mind that Djibouti remains a thorn in the side of Eritrean Pres. Isayas, who sees now only Djibouti providing an escape valve for Ethiopia);
7. Increased activities by Eritrean-backed terrorist and guerilla activities inside Ethiopia, possibly with the revived support of Libyan Pres. Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi and Egypt.

The interactive result of all of this, including the Sudanese developments, will be to increase the dangers to shipping in the Red Sea/Suez SLOC, and compound threats to Yemen and Saudi Arabia, at the very least. This contributes significantly to Iran’s strategy to weaken Saudi Arabia’s influence. Ironically, many of the jihadist/Islamist activities in the Horn have been ostensibly Wahabbist/neo-salafist in nature, deriving from the State-sponsored Saudi sect of Sunni Islam, which have — as with Osama bin Laden’s proselytization — been used against the Saudi State and interests.

Ironically, early recognition of the sovereignty of the Republic of Somaliland when it broke away — as it had every legal right to do — from the ill-fated union with Somalia in 1990 would have prevented this situation, and would have helped stabilize the Horn of Africa long before this time. Egypt, the Arab League, and Saudi Arabia worked hard to prevent this recognition, but the African Union (AU), and the major trading powers with a vital interest in the Red Sea, could have unilaterally recognized Somaliland.

The absolutely spurious claim that Somaliland could not be recognized because it was a “breakaway” state from Somalia should have been recognized for what it was: legally nonsensical. Somaliland was fully independent and sovereign from the United Kingdom — its earlier colonial overlord — before it joined into the union with Italian Somaliland.

To say that Somaliland could not withdraw, and be recognized, from that union in 1990 would be tantamount to saying that Egypt could no longer be recognized as independent when it withdrew from its “United Arab Republic” experiment with Syria.

The outgoing Government of Somaliland was warned, privately, of the moves being made to overthrow it by using the occasion of the Presidential election to stage what amounts to a coup de manœuvre, and yet proved incapable of addressing the threat. GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs also publicly identified the process through 2010. And yet no-one acted, other than the extremists and their Western supporters who may well have been promised resource concessions in the region as payment for their support.

httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rtosZRbTqk

Somalia divides the West :- Who control the ground and high seas ?

Two Decades and Counting But Stability Still Eludes Somalia

Planned deployment of German ex-soldiers to Somalia draws 
German ex-soldiers to work in SomaliaBERLIN — A private security company’s plan to deploy more than 100 German ex-soldiers to Somalia to work for a warlord has triggered intense media coverage and drew harsh criticism from lawmakers 

America Secretly Plans For War With Iran
General Petraeus, has ordered a ‘broad expansion’ of secret activity in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Somaliaand Yemen among other countries. 

German military security firm helps Somali warlord

Monday, 24 May 2010

German lawmakers have voiced concern about a deal between a German military security firm and a warlord hostile to the UN-backed government in Somalia.

Government soldier in Mogadishu - file pic

Rival militias have turned the capital Mogadishu into a killing zone

Asgaard German Security Group, which hires former German troops, has signed a contract with Abdinur Ahmed Darman, who claims to be the Somali president.
Rival militias have turned the capital Mogadishu into a killing zone

MPs from three German parties said the deal would aggravate the conflict in Somalia and violate UN sanctions.

But a BBC reporter in Somalia says Mr Darman is a marginal figure in the war.

Mr Darman declared himself president in 2003, but has not lived in the country for about five years, and is regarded by most Somalis as a publicity seeker, the BBC’s Mohamed Moalimuu reports from the capital Mogadishu.

Preparing for power

Asgaard says it will provide services, including military training, only when Mr Darman becomes the country’s leader.

map

Mr Darman’s Republican Party has an office in Mogadishu and occasionally issues statements – referring to Mr Darman as president – but is not considered a major political player.

“As soon as he assumes control of state affairs again, with the approval of the UN, Asgaard GSG will take charge of training, equipping and supplying the fire service, public health service and disaster control, as well as the police and military,” a statement on Asgaard’s website said.

“We want to do this in close co-operation with the German government, and we are in no way acting against their interests. At this point there are no German citizens in Somalia at the instigation of Asgaard GSG.”

Somalia has been racked by violence for more than two decades.

A leading German MP in the left-wing Linke party, Paul Schaefer, said Asgaard’s deal was worrying “because it’s a kind of shadow foreign policy, beyond parliamentary control”.

A German liberal FDP politician, Rainer Stinner, said such a deal “clearly violates” UN sanctions prohibiting arms deliveries or training for Somali militias.

Islamist insurgency

Islamist groups control much of the south of the country, with the UN-backed transitional government headed by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed limited to small parts of the capital.

President Ahmed – a former insurgent leader who was elected by Somali MPs in January 2009 – is in Turkey for a peace conference, where he told the BBC how he intended to tackle the Islamists.

He said he wanted to build up a government army while offering an olive branch to radicals who might be turned.

But the BBC’s Mark Doyle in Istanbul says it is far from clear if the president, described in the West as a moderate, will prevail.

He has Western support now, because Washington hopes he will keep al-Qaeda at bay in East Africa, but

Western support is a poisoned chalice in nationalist Somalia, he says.

————————————–
@@
————————————–

U.S. destroyer shadows ship under pirate control

By the CNN Wire Staff
May 24, 2010

(CNN) — A U.S. destroyer is shadowing a ship off the coast of Somalia after it was taken over by 50 pirates, authorities said.

The M/V Iceberg was identified last week after the USS McFaul conducted a 36-hour surveillance mission, the multi-national Combined Maritime Forces said in a statement. The USS McFaul began shadowing the Panamanian-flagged vessel May 19 before the M/V Iceberg reversed course and began heading toward the Somali coast.

“We cannot be sure what the pirates’ plan was if they had not been interrupted,” said Rear Adm. Beom Rim Lee, commander of the Combined Maritime Forces task force.

The destroyer USS McFaul is monitoring a Panamanian-flagged vessel taken over by pirates.

The destroyer USS McFaul is monitoring a Panamanian-flagged vessel taken over by pirates.

“The vessel may have been on its way to either assist other pirates in distress, or look for another merchant vessel to attack,” he said.

The M/V Iceberg was last been seen off the coast of the Somali town of Garacaad, a known pirate haven, but its exact location was unknown until USS McFaul positively identified it. “Further investigation showed the name of the ship had been crudely painted over” in an effort to disguise it, which caused confusion in identifying it, the Combined Maritime Forces statement said.

The USS McFaul had initially requested to board the ship to check on the crew. The M/V Iceberg denied it had been taken over, saying it was having mechanical difficulties. Eventually, crew members radioed back saying they had been taken hostage by heavily armed pirates, officials said.

The M/V Iceberg has a crew of 24 from Yemen, India, Ghana, Sudan, Pakistan and the Philippines, officials said.

Cmdr. Ronald W. Toland, Jr., commanding officer of USS McFaul, said he tried to ensure the safety of the crew first.

“Given the report of heavily armed pirates on board, it was more prudent to monitor the ship’s movement, rather than attempt a rescue,” he said.